Caution One

Each person that comes in will cost taxpayers, with the bulk of the burden at the local level, an average of $8,000 a year for housing, health care, transportation, education, food assistance, etc. Thus the 100,000 that were apprehended in March could cost Americans $800,000,000 for a year if they stay in the U.S. Such a rate enter at the Southwest Border for 12 months will be 1,200,000 immigrants and the cost is over 9 billion dollars.

Caution Two

The State of Texas is now spending 108 billion dollars each year for the total state budget. If the trend of people trying to come into Texas get into Texas then in about a decade the possible costs of the new immigrants will be close to the entire current state budget.

Caution Three

These costs to the taxpayers will be offset a bit by earnings and taxes paid if the immigrants secure jobs. How many are adults and how many are children and what wages they can earn are questions as well. Many of these may not stay in Texas but well over half first come into Texas.

Immigration At The Mexican Border

In April of 2018 a caravan of people from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras gained worldwide attention as the organizers emphasized the group would enter Mexico and then travel north to the American border to enter the United States. Organizers declared that there should be no borders between countries and people should be free to move from country to country. Some think the development of the caravan was in response to the efforts of the new American President, Donald Trump, to have more control over immigration into the United States. News coverage noted that much of 2017 had lowered rates of attempts to immigrate to the United States along the border with Mexico and that was felt to be the result of statements by President Donald Trump in his campaign and then after the election to stop such immigration by building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border among other efforts. Those statements appear to have had an effect for much of the first year, 2017, of the Trump Administration as year-to-year comparisons showed lowered rates of apprehensions of immigration attempts.

Another Caravan Headed Toward The Border

However the lowered rates ended late in 2017 and have begun to rise most months of 2018. This rise is in the context, now, of a second large caravan of Central Americans, mainly from Honduras, traveling through Guatemala and soon to enter Mexico with the intention of coming to the United States border.[1] [2]

Substantial attention to such immigration efforts was directed to events during the summer of 2014 when tens of thousands of children (unaccompanied minors) from Central America entered the country particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. The numbers overwhelmed the resources of the Federal Government that has the responsibility of patrolling the borders, Customs and Border Patrol, CBP making those personnel deal with child welfare responsibilities and necessitating the Texas Highway Patrol and other Texas Department of Public Safety resources as well as county and municipal authorities to address disorder and organized crime at the border, which is a Federal responsibility.

Immigration Components and Numbers

CBP breaks immigration numbers into three separate categories of Unaccompanied minors (children), Adults and Family Units. These compose the CBP category of Inadmissables. CBP policy is to take children that present themselves at the border to childcare facilities, separating them from parents. This includes children that are traveling with families. Entering the United States without documentation and permission is a law violation. American law and custom is to remove dependent minors from parents or adult providers that are charged with committing crimes and having the state, usually child welfare services, arrange for temporary or permanent custody.

That policy became controversial in the summer of 2018 with various political groups traveling to the border to visit such facilities and calling for an end to these Federal regulations of separating children from families.[3] Those political pressures may have had the impact of increasing the number of families coming to the border instead of adults or unaccompanied children. There seems to be an emerging recognition of those that seek to come to the United States that having a child as part of the group increases the likelihood of clearing Border Patrol stops. The Washington Post has reported DHS statistics for October, yet to be released, which show a 30 percent increase over the comparable period of 2017. Border Patrol agents arrested 16,658 family members in September, the highest one-month total on record and an 80 percent increase from July.[4] The picture below is from an immigrant detention center this week in the Rio Grande Valley.[5] Reports are that this center in McAllen is receiving 3,000 persons from Central America each day. Estimates have been offered of 500,000 in this area for 2018, highest ever.[6] Centers elsewhere in Texas as well as Arizona are reported full. [7]Immigration Holding Facility in McAllen, Texas

Impact Of Demographics

These numbers of immigrants reflect the sharp demographic and economic differentials between the United States, Mexico and the countries of Central America. These differentials help to explain why people leave Mexico and Central America to come to the United States and also to increasing degrees, travel even to Canada. The economic growth from increased global trade that was expected to come to these countries to our south has not materialized in sufficient degrees to make attempts to come north less attractive. If robotics and automation continue to replace labor, then economic conditions are not likely to improve thus leading to larger numbers from poorer countries attempting to immigrate to the United States.

Economics, Demography and Education[8]

Immigrants with low levels of education will increasingly encounter difficulties finding work and work with incomes that will support the higher costs of living in the United States. These costs to parents illustrate having children. The U.S. Department of Agriculture provides a widely cited guide to estimates of what it costs to have and raise a child to 18 years of age in the United States.[9] In 2017 the costs are estimated to be $233,610.[10] Those costs are born by the family or the state if families do not have sufficient income or if the child does not have a family. In today’s world and in the future, a high school education is not sufficient to secure adequate income and a 2 or 4-year trade or college education is advised. Estimates are $50,000 per year for board, room, books and tuition for students staying away from home. Staying home reduces the cost to about $25,000 with substantial variations between 2 year, 4 year and public and private institutions. Thus raising a child that will be educationally prepared for work and life in the United States, today, requires an expenditure of nearly half a million dollars. This explains part of the reason for the trend of smaller American families and women delaying having children until later in life.

An important question is how fully can the immigrant through work and social participation repay the draw against resources that come from the community. High levels of unemployment and low wage earnings mean that the community must subsidize the immigrant.[11]

Stability of Neighboring Countries

Low income and limited work opportunity in many countries have long played a role in causing immigration to the United States. The hope of the immigrant is better employment and living opportunities. That hope is perhaps greater today than it has been for decades and the result is reflected in rising rates of immigration to the United States and projections for coming decades.

A newer force promoting immigration is the growing violence in Mexico and almost every country of Latin America. Mexico continues to have higher rates of violence in 2018 than in 2017, the year that set records of violence for more than two decades. This violence threatens the integrity of national and state governments in Latin America, is accompanied by organized and transnational criminal organizations and threatens the security of borders in many ways including terrorism efforts.[12]

A third force promoting immigration with populations coming from other parts of the globe may be climate change and failing agriculture. As the United States has seen in 2018 with Hurricane Michael this fall and then for a current example with record rains in the Texas Hill Country, the climate seems to be getting warmer providing more intense storms and weather variability. Crop failures can lead to starvation and there is evidence of this in some of the current immigrant flow. Guatemala, as an example, had serious declines in coffee production from leaf rust that killed coffee plants starting about 2011. Coffee production is an important part of the economy in Guatemala and source of jobs. The rust may have come from wetter and warmer conditions. Rust, warmer conditions and lower coffee prices have contributed to Guatemalan farmers abandoning fields and seeking to migrate to the United States.

Summary

Economic, Political and probably Climatic forces are increasing the numbers seeking to immigrate to the United States. Persons traveling by land will come from the southern border with Mexico. The largest numbers will come to Texas and most heavily to the Rio Grande Valley. The immediate problems are how to maintain order, shelter and feed the immigrants. Communicable disease will be an issue. The numbers and disorder will provide cover for organized crime and terrorists. Immediate costs are in the tens of millions of dollars and farther on the horizon are costs in the billions. There is no ready solution as for many of the immigrants any punishment in the United States is less severe than simply trying to live in many of the communities of Central America.Crossings from Guatemala into Mexico-October 20, 2018

Since 1960 the United States has been the top destination for migrants all over the world with one fifth of the world’s immigrants living here. There are approximately 44 million immigrants in the United States today. There are additionally 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States with most residing in California, Texas, New York and Florida. Most of these immigrants come from Mexico and Central America. [13] [14] Estimates are for authorized immigrants to exceed one million a year for years into the future. As the current caravan may suggest, rising rates of unauthorized immigrants are developing and Texas will likely be the initial destination. The initial estimates from areas like McAllen warn that the unauthorized numbers each year will exceed those of authorized immigrants.

These pressures of immigration will affect communities and nations. Housing, feeding, education and health care will be the immediate impact. All of Europe and the economic union OPEC are fracturing over immigration issues with migrant populations there coming from the Middle East and Africa.[15] [16] Millions of persons coming into the United States and with a large percentage first arriving in Texas is a challenge of many dimensions.

Societies and countries develop policies and programs to address external threats. Border controls and standing armies exist to protect against armed invasions. China built its great wall beginning in 771 BC to protect against invaders from the northwest. France built the Maginot Line after World War I to protect against German invasion. The United States and European countries created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, to protect against conflicts with the Soviet Union and now Russia. Currently the United States budgets for 54 percent of all federal discretionary spending, a total of $598.5 billion for defense.

What the size of the disruptions these immigration patterns represent and what programs are needed is a complex policy and budgeting decision that now looms for government! The only thing partially clear is the numbers of immigrants can run annually in the millions and continue for years. Here are some graphs we have seen before but none have 2018 data.

REFERENCES

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/honduran-migrant-caravan-grows-4000-amid-spike-u-s-border-n921286

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/honduran-migrant-caravan-grows-4000-amid-spike-u-s-border-n921286

[3] https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Rallies-still-planned-in-El-Paso-Tornillo-13012166.php

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/record-number-of-families-crossing-us-border-as-trump-threatens-new-crackdown/2018/10/17/fe422800-c73a-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html?noredirect=on &utm_term=.4b1aa83b37fb

[5] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mcallen-texas-immigration-processing-center-largest-u-s-n884126

[6] https://riograndeguardian.com/zabaleta-kaplan-immigrant-caging-on-the-texas-mexico-border/

[7] Photo from a colleague visiting an ICE detention center in the Rio Grande Valley

[8] Sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mx.html; https://www.worlddata.info/average-income.php

[9] https://www.cnpp.usda.gov/tools/CRC_Calculator/default.aspx

[10] http://time.com/money/4629700/child-raising-cost-department-of-agriculture-report/

[11] https://cis.org/Report/Record-445-Million-Immigrants-2017

[12] https://cis.org/Bensman/What-New-White-House-National-Strategy-Counterterrorism-Says-about-US-Border-Security

[13] https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states#Unauthorized

[14] https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017

[15] https://www.wsj.com/articles/immigration-standoff-shakes-merkels-fragile-government-1528912541

[16] https://cis.org/Huennekens/Whats-Going-Brussels

[17] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

Violence seemed to reach a peak and the city of Juarez was recording nearly 10 murders a day at the end of 2010. It was the most violent city in the world. But in 2012 two things occurred with the end of the 12 years of PAN control of the Mexican Presidency and the return of the PRI. First, violence abated. Second, public and private reporting was restrained. In some locales, social internet media was the sole means of reporting and warning to citizens.

This year, though, the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, where Juarez is it’s largest city, has begun to see increases in violence. Here are two reports:

Ciudad Juárez trembles again

A Mexican security success story faces a new test

Oct 29th 2016 | From the print edition Economist

IN PUERTO DE LA PAZ, a settlement of hardscrabble houses and shacks in the western suburbs of Ciudad Juárez, a new three-storey community centre offers taekwondo, five-a-side football and classes in baking and giving beauty treatments. It is one of 49 such centres in poorer parts of this sprawling industrial city jammed against Mexico’s border with Texas. Intended to offer young people alternatives to organised crime, they are a sign of change in a place that became known as “the world’s most dangerous city”.

There are other changes. Restaurants and bars are full. “There are parts of the city that are heaving with nightlife where a few years ago you wouldn’t have seen a soul,” says Nohemi Almada, a lawyer and activist. The local economy is booming. Factories lining Juárez’s urban highways, making everything from car parts to wind turbines, sport job-vacancy signs.

Between 2008 and 2011 Juárez descended into hell. It felt the knock-on effects of the offensive against drug mobs launched by Mexico’s then-president, Felipe Calderón. “Here the war on drugs was a massacre,” says Ms Almada. “We all grew used to seeing bound corpses in the street.” A city of 1.4m people suffered more than 300 murders a month. Extortion, kidnapping and carjacking became endemic. The nadir came in January 2010, when gunmen slaughtered 15 students at a birthday party. A chastened Mr Calderón went to Juárez and promised help.

Nowadays the city is touted as a success story. Murders fell steeply, to 311 in the whole of 2015. Three things were behind the turnaround. First, the federal government poured money into the city. Some of it went into community centres, parks and sports centres. Another chunk transformed the local police, whose officers are now better educated, trained and paid, says a local official. The Chihuahua state government has set up a task force of detectives and prosecutors.

The second factor was community mobilisation. Representatives of business and professional associations formed a security round-table in 2010, which still meets. They have drawn up security indicators and hold the authorities accountable for meeting targets, pressing them to co-ordinate closely, says Arturo Valenzuela, a surgeon and member of the group.

The third factor has little to do with the government. The violence in Juárez surged when rivals battled the Sinaloa drug mob for control of the city, an important drug export route. Each side made alliances with youth gangs and elements in the security forces. Sinaloa appeared to win, ending the war.

Enrique Peña Nieto, who replaced Mr Calderón in 2012, has continued the effort in Juárez, but has tried only fitfully to reproduce its success elsewhere. Having initially played down security issues, Mr Peña now faces mounting alarm among Mexicans, who worry that half a dozen of the country’s states have become ungovernable because of organised crime, corruption and social conflicts. Such concerns prompted Mr Peña to replace the attorney-general this week.

After falling for the first two-and-a-half years of Mr Peña’s presidency, the national murder rate has risen sharply this year. Businesses complain of the mounting cost of extortion and highway robbery. Because of the weakness of government forces, armed vigilantes now operate in 20 states, according to Eduardo Guerrero, a security consultant. “Everything is very reactive, and there is a lack of foresight regarding the knock-on effects of interventions,” he says of government policy.

There is nervousness in Juárez, too, because of a rise in murders this year. Some blame the uncertainty among the criminal classes prompted by the election of a new state governor and new mayor, and the tensions between them. Others point to the recapture in January of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, the head of the Sinaloa mob, who has escaped twice from prison. Awaiting extradition to the United States, he is being held in the turreted bulk of a federal prison in the Chihuahua desert, just outside Juárez. The government is taking no chances: a dozen army vehicles, some with guns mounted, guard the prison entrance.

Mr Guzmán’s arrest appears to have triggered a renewed battle for territory among rival drug gangs that may be behind the resurgence of violence. On average, half of murders are linked to organised crime, reckons Mr Guerrero. That bodes ill for Mexico. Juárez shows that a concerted political effort and community involvement can bring improvements, at least for a time. But across too much of the country, the basics of the rule of law—an effective police force and a capacity to prosecute crimes—are still missing.

Violence erupts in Juárez, Chihuahua City

Daniel Borunda , El Paso Times 9:28 p.m. MDT October 28, 2016

(Photo: Courtesy Juárez city government)

Seven people were shot and killed early Friday evening in Juárez as part of a wave of violence that has left about 20 people dead in Juárez and Chihuahua City since Thursday night, according to news accounts.

Three men were shot and killed in southeast Juárez followed by the fatal shootings of a man on a sidewalk near a supermarket, a man at a tire repair shop and the killing of two people in the Hacienda de Las Torres area, the Norte Digital newspaper website reported.

The shootings occurred within an hour of each other, Norte Digital reported.

In Chihuahua City, seven people were killed by a group of gunmen Thursday night in the Alfer motel on the Chihuahua City-Juárez highway, El Heraldo de Chihuahua reported.

Five people were reportedly killed in Juárez on Thursday.

Juárez has been hit by a rash of deadly street shootings this month that could be linked to a battle for control of crystal methamphetamine sales, a spokesman for the Chihuahua state attorney general’s office said last week after five men were gunned down in a barbershop.

October has been the deadliest month in Juárez in the past four years.

— Daniel Borunda

American media like those in Mexico focus upon celebrities but there are deeper, more complex currents that create the fame of the celebrities. El Chapo’s wealth comes not from his 2nd Grade education but his skills in supplying the drug market in the United States. The money from drugs can corrupt American efforts as a case reported in the Texas Valley provides. From The Monitor in McAllen:

McALLEN — A former Starr County narcotics officer was sentenced to seven years in prison Friday for his role in a scheme that involved stealing drugs from drug cartels.

Noel Peña, 30, was charged with two counts of conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute more than 5 kilograms of cocaine last April. In the scheme, Peña was tipped off to the location of cocaine and then staged a law enforcement operation, the complaint states.

Peña spent seven years as a Rio Grande City police officer, including four assigned to the Starr County High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area task force, where he worked since 2011.

HIDTA was created in 1990 to diminish drug trafficking in the U.S. Southwest border. Fourteen counties across Texas have HIDTA task forces. The one in Starr County reports to 229th District Attorney Omar Escobar, according to the Office of National Drug Control Policy website. Hector Salinas-Hinojosa, of Roma, was also charged with conspiring with Peña in the distribution operation, according to court documents. Both men pleaded not guilty to two counts of conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute cocaine from April 1 to April 17.

In July, Peña and Salinas-Hinojosa agreed to plead guilty to the first count in exchange for a lighter sentence and had the second conspiracy charge dropped by prosecutors, according to court documents. Salinas-Hinojosa was also sentenced Friday and received five years in prison for his role in the conspiracy, according to court records. Federal agents arrested the duo April 18 after they said the two conspired to hand over a falsified police report to an undercover officer they thought was a cocaine trafficker, a criminal complaint states. The undercover officer told them he needed help stealing the bulk of a 22-pound load of cocaine he was holding for a drug cartel, according to the complaint.

Unsolved crimes and police conduct are prominent topics in 2014. Police actions particularly in a St. Louis suburb, Ferguson, and in Staten Island of NYC and then the murders of two NYC officers has dominated much media and public attention during the Fall and Winter months. A different issue occurred in the Mexican State of Guerrero that has ignited Mexican concerns about police, gangs and government.

Austin is determining the number of officers it will need as the City grows rapidly and this article on Houston sheds some light on American and likely Mexican issues with regard to the police.

This story is a contextual item to consider as cities decide the number of officers needed including the percent of uncommitted time. Most larger American communities have subcultures and those subcultures vary in terms of education, income levels, family structure and experiences with crime. African Americans and Hispanics suffer higher crime rates with substantial correlations between victim and perpetrator characteristics. A developing difference to the past in America is the increased rates of unsolved crimes. Today the national rate is about 62 percent, thus about 6 out of 10 cases are solved. However in the 1960’s, the clearance rate (murders solved) was 90 percent. Only the rate among white victims approaches that today with about 85 percent of murders of whites solved. Urban areas and gang and drug-related as well as rates with young males are all important factors in unsolved (no-clearance) murders. Several cities (Washington, D.C., Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Phoenix) have the highest rates.

If there are adequate numbers of police, appropriately recruited, trained and supervised; if connections are made with all of the neighborhoods, clearance rates will be high as will be trust and respect of the police. Austin has rapidly growing and changing neighborhoods with many persons from countries with low clearance rates and wary of police. Much of the population of Austin is young and the country’s major route of illegal drugs passes from Nuevo Laredo along IH 35 through Austin. In most instances the drugs are moved by gangs and a constant influence in some Austin neighborhoods. Thus several factors exist that can lower the clearance rate.

The article from Houston illustrates this lowered clearance rate. Effective police work starts with community rapport and support and if that is low then these results as Houston’s follow.

A positive note is that these rates of unsolved murders pale as compared to some other countries such as Mexico that often has rates of 98 percent unsolved murders. The murders of 43 plus community college students in the Mexican state of Guerrero in September and the attendant concern of Mexican citizens along with the failure of its governments to address such issues is not a path we want to take in our country and should alert our attention to facts such as these from Houston.

MLL
HOUSTON — At least 353 killings in Houston since 2009 remain unsolved, with only about 7 percent of those cases involving white victims, the Houston Chronicle reports.

An analysis of Houston police records by the newspaper published Sunday shows that about 90 percent of Houston homicide victims are minorities.

Photo: Marie D. De Jesus, Staff

Vera Thompkins, right, with daughter Quinta’le Ross, still has no answers in the 2009 shooting death of her son Quincy.

Vera Thompkins was devastated but not entirely surprised when she received the kind of news that every parent fears above all. Her son had been found dead – more precisely shot to death – his body, with multiple bullet wounds, left face down on the lawn of a vacant west Houston home.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

“All I can tell you is that when it comes to homicide victims, the Houston homicide division is colorblind,” Capt. Dwayne Ready, who heads the division, said.

Chief Charles McClelland, who is black, says because of the preponderance of minority victims, it’s no coincidence that most of the unsolved cases also involve minorities.

Houston averages about 200 homicides a year, and officials said the number of closed cases in the city is about equal to the national average of 65 percent.

History shows most of the open cases likely won’t ever be solved.

Of all the Houston cases cleared in any given year, an average of 15 date back more than 12 months, the newspaper found. Like most big-city police departments, the majority are solved within 30 days, illustrating the importance of the first few days of an investigation.

Data show that 60 percent of cases involving black homicide victims over the past 51Ž2 years have been solved, while the rate for Hispanic victims is only 46 percent.

Drug-related slayings account for many of the unsolved homicides, according to Ken Peak, a criminologist who teaches at the University of Nevada-Reno.

“Clearances across the country have dropped considerably because of the gangs and the drug murders,” Peak said. “It used to be you could count on 90 percent clearance because you could trace back and identify a suspect who might have had a motive, and talk to witnesses who are willing to come forward.”

But he said that in some neighborhoods, witnesses are scared to give evidence against heavily armed gang members. Also in play is the immigration status of the witnesses, who may not be as willing to help a non-Latino officer, Peak said.

Ready said his division includes black, Hispanic and a dozen female detectives, but 58 of the 83 investigators are white.

Former Police Chief C.O. Bradford, who is now a city councilman, said that investigators may be colorblind, but that it’s more difficult for a detective who comes from a different background.

“You can’t replace what a person understands about their culture,” Bradford said. “If I don’t understand the culture, I may approach the wrong person first, or approach someone publicly who I should meet with privately.”

Mexico turned a corner in 2000 with the election of Vicente Fox. His party, the PAN, was an abrupt break with the dictatorial rule of the PRI dating back to the 1920’s and the decade after the 1920 Revolution. The election brings Mexico to a crossroads and the path the country takes will be significant not just for Mexico but for the Amerivas.

here are four economic pillars of today’s Mexican state that earn foreign currency critical to the survival of the Mexican economy and society. Today Mexico must import about 40 percent of its food, much of its technology and export earnings are critical. If those pillars fall, then the third largest economy in the Americas fails and that failure is on America’s doorstep with 110 million people, Texas’ largest import customer and the third ranking source of foreign oil for the United States.

Foremost is oil among the pillars with exports providing the most basic source of income to run the Mexican government from the President’s salary to pay of teachers, doctors, police and soldiers. Mexico’s largest fields are declining rapidly and estimates are that by mid-decade Mexico will not have sufficient production to meet internal consumption and provide exports.

Second is income from tourism. Mexican resorts on the south side of the Yucatan and north from Acapulco to Tijuana feature some of the finest beaches in the world and are readily accessible in a few hours from North America. Oil riches in the last two decades have provided the infrastructure of roads, utilities and airports to substantially increase the likelihood of tourism. Since 2005 tourism is down sharply because of fear of violence.

Third is export earnings from maquila manufacturing. Visible in this area are the large numbers of light manufacturing and assembly plants particularly in the north of Mexico that feed the American market. The advantage of Mexico is its cheaper labor perhaps as low as ten dollars a day as compared fifty dollars in the United States. The globalization of labor has meant that the Mexican workers must compete with others such as China and India where daily rates may be as low as two dollars.

Fourth is “loaned workers” that reside in the United States and send remittances back to families in Mexico. The American recession and the bust in home building and financing have sharply curtailed the availability of jobs in the States for Mexican workers.

Juarez-El Paso: The Canary in the Mine

No community in North America provides a better warning of the potential chaos that can come from a failed nation state and the market for drugs, trafficked persons and dirty money than this twin city of 1.5 million on the Mexican side and 700,000 on the American side. Since 1950 Juarez has doubled in size each decade and was one of the early innovators in the maqila concept of duty-free assembly work. The promise of jobs and the hope of a Mexico more like America drew tens of thousands for work in these factories. But with the collapse of real estate and the decline of the American economy much of the promise has vanished. Added to that misery is an open war between two cartels, La Linea-the Juarez Cartel and the Sinaloa for the control of the plaza that moves drugs and other contraband back and forth between Mexico and the United States.

In an effort to control the cartels and with recognition of a highly corrupt municipal and state police, President Calderon in 2008 sent 7,000 Federal troops to patrol the town. That did not succeed and in the last 2 years 4, 200 people have been killed with 500 in January and February. While many those killed were cartel members others were soldiers, police and importantly civilians. The war against civilians took a more ominous turn on Saturday, March 13 when three civilian employees of the American consulate were killed in the afternoon in Juarez in two events in what some saw as coordinated. Mexican authorities joined by the FBI and the DEA suspect that a home grown street and prison gang, the Aztecas may have done the contract killing for one of the cartels. On the El Paso side this group is known as the Barrio Aztecas and formed in the Texas prison system two decades ago. This alliance represents a new front in the war with the cartels where American gangs work in contract relations with the Mexican cartels. High unemployment on both sides of the border assures a steady supply of foot soldiers

The impact of this violence has recently been estimated to have forced 400,000 residents of Juarez to flee the city. Since 2005, 10,600 businesses—roughly 40% of Juárez’s businesses—have closed their doors and maybe 10,000 homes abandoned. People with means have fled to El Paso and the Juarez mayor keeps a home there. With the average household income in Juarez about one fourth of that in El Paso, there is likely a huge increase in the poverty population of the city with an attendant demand on services such as education, health and public housing. The El Paso Police Chief has grown so concerned about being outgunned by the cartels that he got support from the El Paso City Council to provide over 1,000 combat rifles to his police force.

In Juarez people have lost faith in the government and are fleeing to the United States and in some cases calling for an American takeover to protect them from the cartels. There are between ten and twenty million people in northern Mexican states that border on Texas and if Juarez-El Paso is a pattern that repeats then the waves of refugees coming in the days ahead to Texas will far exceed the experiences with any Gulf hurricane.

Four alternative scenarios are possible for Mexico.

Mexico has arrived at a crisis point. Events are deteriorating rapidly At this point all have about equal probabilities.

Reprive

World economy rebounds. Oil prices rise to $200 a barrel, Mexico permits foreign investments and spins off PEMEX which modernizes engineering, refining and exploration. Corruption is curtailed and profits soar. Situation stabilizes to a significant degree.

Collapse in progress

Oil plays out in Mexico’s top producing fields, Mexico cedes control over the south and north of the country and 20 million refugees head to the northern cities and the United States. Millions will come to Texas alone. Mexico is a failed state with guerilla bands controlling much of the countryside and several of the larger low income neighborhoods in Mexico City. Staged attacks on American border cities occur with regular frequency and local police are overwhelmed facing cartels that are better organized, funded and equipped. American border cities are overwhelmed with refugees and violent gangs.

American Protectorate

Cartels use hit squads to attack American law enforcement in border cities on both sides. The United States intervenes with military forces as it has done in Haiti and creates a protectorate for the Mexican Federal government south to Monterrey, Saltillo and Durango. The traditional northern antipathy toward the “chilangos” of Mexico City grows and a process of tying the northern Mexican states closely to the American Southwest accelerates. Leftist and nationalistic mobs burn and sack the American Embassy in Mexico City.

Revival of Pax Americana

American economy revives and joint American and Mexican efforts suppress cartel activity with attendant boosts in tourism, maquilas and domestic growth. America sharply reduces illegal drug consumption. Mexico increases its historical ties with Central America and opens the region to the south to economic growth and channels American technological knowhow through all of Latin America.