For the amount of stress the United States puts on China as a power, very little effort is made by the public to understand Chinese politics and how the nation functions within international systems. I am also aware of my severe lack of knowledge on Chinese government and the role they play within international bodies. For this reason I chose to attend Yun Sun’s lecture on the deterioration of the China-North Korea Alliance. Yun Sun is a senior associate with the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Her background includes being a visitor fellow for the Brookings Institute and was also the China Expert for the International Crisis Organization based in Beijing China. She has spent years studying Chinese government and security, and I looked forward to her thoughts on such a hot topic.
North Korea gained a lot of attention recently for their missile tests as well as nuclear tests. The country conducted a total of six nuclear tests and, a week before the lecture, just conducted another missile test. This led to a lot of fear from the international community and China’s relationship with North Korea could help bring a solution to this prominent issue. To understand this alliance between the countries, one must go back to the past to understand how the countries came to this agreement. During the Korean War, China, at first, took a neutral stance on the war. When the United States invaded the Korean Peninsula, China made the decision to also get involved in this war. It was here in this war that the states began their alliance, but nothing was consolidated for another eight years until a treaty was signed in 1961. The details of this treaty state that China is legally obligated to assist North Korea if they are ever attacked by another country.
Recently, North Korea made news for running nuclear tests and possibly provoking other countries, like the United States. The looming threat of war caused China to reassess this treaty they automatically renew every twenty years. The treaty will be up for renewal again in 2021. The nation is worried that they may be forced into a war they don’t wish to be involved in. For this reason, policy makers are attempting to figure out ways to legally breach this treaty. One possibility they suggested is that China is not forced into conflict if it’s provoked by North Korea. Provoking is defined as North Korea using force against another nation and them being attacked as retaliation. According to the Yun Sun, China also feels that they were manipulated by North Korea. The state of North Korea started the Korean war without consent of China or the USSR. Also they believe that the war permanently prevented the unification of China and Taiwan, because China was forced to shift their focus to North Korea. Today, Chinese government views North Korea as more of a burden than anything else.
Yun Sun then posed the question, if North Korea is such a burden, then why keep the country as an ally. Her analysis is that China’s main goal is a unification of Korea, but it is possible that this could occur in ways that would be a loss to China. If the South Korean government was to become the governing force of a united Korea, there would be greater East Asian military alliances with the United States. China needs military alliances with their neighbors and North Korea provides the a bargaining tool for gaining more. There is also the issue of China’s arsenal location.Chinese weapons arsenals are located near North Korea, and an attack on North Korea would leave the arsenals vulnerable. The destruction of Chinese arsenals would leave China defenseless in a war with any nation.
The final part of Ms. Sun’s presentation provided an analysis on what future steps China should take in their alliance with North Korea. The ultimate goal is the reunification of Korea, but China has two conditions that must be met. The first condition is that the reunification must be independent of any third party interveners, like the United States. This must be a process exclusive to North and South Korean governments. The second condition is that it must be a peaceful reunification. No military intervention is allowed in bringing these nations back together.
Yun Sun’s lecture was extremely informative on such an extremely complex topic. He analysis of the situation between North Korea and China offered a new perspective on military alliances, economics, and East Asian diplomacy. The alliance between North Korea and China has evolved to become much more complicated and with fears over war between the United States and North Korea it is important to understand possible roles of other powerful countries.