Following World War II, the United States had an outsized role in the Pacific as the various islands served as way stations and air bases through the famous island-hopping strategy that capitulated the Japanese Empire. Many of these islands would continue to fall under US influence and direct control into the 20th century with some being granted a unique status in relation to the US. The Compacts of Free Association were crafted in the 1980s and 1990s with the countries of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). These compacts provide economic assistance, military protection, and relaxed migration policy to these countries in return for military installations across the Western Pacific. With these compacts being up for renewal in 2023 and 2024, the US has an opportunity to capitalize on the compacts’ success.
Despite these compacts cementing US influence in the region for decades, a growing China seeks to undermine US dominance in the Pacific. In recent years, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been instrumental in spreading Chinese soft power across the world through costly infrastructure deals. These deals have led to many countries falling into unsustainable debt to China which is used by the communist government to exert influence on the affected countries. These projects, and various other diplomatic and economic threats, have put the squeeze on the tiny island nations also known as the Pacific Island Countries (PICs).
China has been increasingly involved in the region, becoming the largest financier in the Pacific. This has resulted in seven PICs owing a considerable debt to China, with Samoa having 40% of its debt owned by the Middle Kingdom. This financial influence exerted on the region has resulted in tangible strategic decisions made by the island leaders. Recently, the nations of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing as China has sought to isolate Taiwan diplomatically from some of the last strongholds of Taiwanese recognition. Besides economic aid, China has invested heavily in local military forces via infrastructure, naval vessels, and military vehicles being donated across the region to Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and Fiji. Chinese economic and military influence has cemented so heavily in some of the PICs that Vanuatu was in talks with China back in 2018 to build a naval base in their territory, a clear sign that Chinese military expansion in the region is of utmost importance.
A rising China can threaten US military installations in the region and endanger the various trade routes that run through the Exclusive Economic Zones of the PICs. In order for the US to resolidify its influence in the region, it should pursue a multi-layered approach to the PICs. In order to achieve this, the US should administer increased economic investment via USAID, increased military aid to build up local forces from the Department of Defense, and, most importantly, the Compacts of Free Association should be both renewed with the existing member states of Palau, the FSM, and the Marshall Islands and expanded to include other PICs. The compacts have proven to be a bulwark against Chinese influence. For example, Palau rejected Chinese pressure to alter its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan and the FSM and Solomon Islands have remained firm US allies. Expanding the compacts to other Western Pacific countries would solidify US influence and bring lasting benefits.
The PICs not only present a major diplomatic block within the United Nations but also are key to protecting US interests in the Pacific militarily. Additionally, the PICs cover a large swath of the Pacific with their EEZs which encompass billions of dollars of natural resources and trade routes. With US foreign policy turning increasingly towards the Indo-Pacific, the focus on the PICs will increase in the coming years as the compacts come up for renewal. As evidenced by the multiple Chinese inroads in recent years, it is clear that the US has fallen behind in realizing the strategic and economic importance of the region. Taking the actions outlined above will ensure strong US-PIC relations that will serve as a block against further Chinese expansionism in the region.
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