This site was created with the publication of my book on Mexico and the Border 9 years ago (2014). It contains historical memories of visits to Mexico, my two decades of research in the border regions and in Mexico with the State of Texas and the Federal Government of Mexico as well as my current thinking about issues in Mexico. The coming year, 2023, will be extremely important for Mexico, the Border and all of the United States.

Then

As a young boy in the 1950’s, I traveled with my parents to Juarez twice and once to Tijuana. The trips were side excursions from auto trips to California traveling the road before IH 10 was built. Both cities were quiet and Juarez would feature Indian women from the mountains about a hundred miles to the south and west of the city of Chihuahua. These are the Tarajumara and the women would sell handcrafted wares to American tourists. They spoke no English and only limited Spanish. One of the items I have from my boyhood is a wooden object that looks like a 2 inch pig about the size of your thumb and has legs that move. You put an insect like an ant in it and as the ant moves inside, the legs move.  The women would make these small items to sell to visitors. They would sit alone and not have much interaction with Mexican people.

Decades later as I completed my doctoral work at Penn State and the University of Oklahoma, I took a faculty position at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, New Mexico. My wife and our one year old son first lived in a rental house on the west side of El Paso. Housing was more varied and less expensive than what was available in Las Cruces. In addition to teaching psychology in New Mexico I taught statistics in the Sociology-Anthropology Department of University of Texas at El Paso, UTEP.  Our family would drive over to Juarez 3 or 4 times a week. Groceries were about half the price over there and restaurant meals were very good and very inexpensive. Crime was low, and bars and “houses of ill repute” were restricted to very specific neighborhoods. One of the more prominent was just across the Rio Grande from the campus of UTEP.

During the two years we lived there, we saw an interesting development created by a man that built and rented warehouses in Juarez. He was Jorge Bustamante and was creating what were called maquilas, factory assembly plants. He would rent a warehouse to an American factory that would ship partially finished items such as the mother board on a computer that needed to have components inserted. The worker would sit at a place on an assembly line and do a single step repeatedly. That step could be done as readily in an American city like Minneapolis, Kansas City or Dallas, but in Juarez at a far lower cost. Such factory labor in an American city would be 2 or 3 dollars an hour. The Mexican workers were paid 10 or 15 cents a hour. The plant manager and any engineers would live in El Paso and commute daily to the factory in Juarez.

This innovation was an early step in globalization and created fundamental changes in a Mexico that was mainly agricultural with most of the population living around Mexico City 700 miles to the south. The Mexican population then was 50 million with most living in central Mexico near Mexico City. Spanish was the predominant language but millions spoke only a native Indian language. Then and even now in many parts of rural Mexico Spanish was not the dominant language but instead an Indian language. Over 80 percent of Mexicans speak Spanish as the dominant language but about 20 percent speak only a native language. Apart from Mexico City most employment until late in the 20th Century was on farms and ranches.

I did some interviews in the maquilas and found that almost all of the assembly line workers were women. They came from towns and rural areas in the south of the state and other states south of Chihuahua. When I asked why they came, they uniformly said they were there to have a new life, very different from their mothers and sisters back home. They did not want to marry or marry later in life not as a teenager. They spoke about having their own money and being able to shop in El Paso.

A surprising effect of the maquila was to change the culture of Mexico, particularly of women. Both Jorge Bermeudez and his wife, Olivia, told me that they did not anticipate the culture change that came with the maquilas but were proud of what they saw as modernization of life in Mexico. Yet these changed roles of women created conflict with men and for many years cities like Juarez had increased rates of homicides of women.

Now

Contrast that world of 30 years ago to the one today. Mexico is urbanized not rural and farm based. The population is over 130 million with rapid growth of cities along the border. Most citizens earn their living working in a job. Services is the dominant occupation with mining and oil field work as much smaller areas. Tourism is an important source of jobs with about 62 percent working in such service. Manufacturing is second with just over 20 percent. This job structure represents how important having tourists is to the Mexican economy as well as the impact of globalization that brings jobs to low-wage economies.  Earnings from Mexicans working in other countries is significant in the nation’s economy with about 5% each year coming from funds earned in other nation’s and sent to Mexico. Most of this comes from the United States.

Mexico’s transition from a rural, farming and ranching world to an urban world involved in trade, tourism and manufacturing has been a journey of the last 50 years or so. One of the headaches in this transition is developing a government that meets its responsibilities and has the respect of the population. That transition has slipped in the last two decades. A clear measure is the rate of crime and in many ways the most simple is homicides.

A disturbing measure is the rate of homicides. El Paso is on track to have a record number in 2022 of 65. Juarez will have about 1,000 in 2022! The population estimated for El Paso is 975,000 and 1,600,000 for Juarez at the end of 2022.

This puts the immigration on the border into a broader picture. Mexico is a very violent land and some of the extremes are along the border with the United States. Here is a regularly updated graph of violence in all the states of Mexico and many individual communities: https://elcri.men/en/violence-map/

There is a similar pattern at the other large twin city in the far west in California and Baja California.

Population      Homicides

San Diego           2,000,000       60

Tijuana                 2,200,000       1,000

                                                                                                   

Week’s Summary

Monday October 22, 2018

Immigration At The Mexican Border

In April of 2018 a caravan of people from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras gained worldwide attention as the organizers emphasized the group would enter Mexico and then travel north to the American border to enter the United States. Organizers declared that there should be no borders between countries and people should be free to move from country to country.

 

Some think the development of the caravan was in response to the efforts of the new American President, Donald Trump, to have more control over immigration into the United States. News coverage noted that much of 2017 had lowered rates of attempts to immigrate to the United States along the border with Mexico and that was felt to be the result of statements by President Donald Trump in his campaign. Then after the election his statements to stop such immigration by building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border among other efforts added to pressures against immigration. Those statements appear to have had an effect for much of the first year, 2017, of the Trump Administration as year-to-year comparisons showed lowered rates of apprehensions of immigration attempts.

 

Another Caravan Headed Toward The Border

However the lowered rates ended late in 2017 and have begun to rise most months of 2018. This rise is in the context, now, of a second large caravan of Central Americans, mainly from Honduras, traveling through Guatemala and entering Mexico with the intention of coming to the United States border.[1]

[2]

 

Substantial attention to such immigration efforts was directed to events during the summer of 2014 when tens of thousands of children (unaccompanied minors) from Central America entered the country particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. The numbers overwhelmed the resources of the Federal Government that has the responsibility of patrolling the borders, Customs and Border Patrol, CBP. CBP personnel had to deal with child welfare responsibilities. This necessitated the Texas Highway Patrol and other Texas Department of Public Safety resources as well as county and municipal authorities to address disorder and organized crime at the border, which is a Federal responsibility.

 

Immigration Components and Numbers

CBP breaks immigration numbers into three separate categories of Unaccompanied minors (children), Adults and Family Units. These compose the CBP category of Inadmissables. CBP policy is to take children that present themselves at the border to childcare facilities, separating them from parents. This includes children that are traveling with families.

 

Entering the United States without documentation and permission is a law violation. American law and custom is to remove dependent minors from parents or adult providers of American citizens and any others residing in the United States that are charged with committing crimes and having the state, usually child welfare services, arrange for temporary or permanent custody. The logic in the law and tradition is that a child should not be raised by persons, parent or not, that are charged with crimes.

 

That policy became controversial in the summer of 2018 with various American political groups traveling to the border to visit such facilities and calling for an end to these Federal regulations of separating children from families.[3] Those political pressures may have had the impact of increasing the number of families coming to the border instead of adults or unaccompanied children.

 

There seems to be an emerging recognition of those that seek to come to the United States that having a child as part of the group increases the likelihood of clearing Border Patrol stops. The Washington Post has reported DHS statistics for October, yet to be released, which show a 30 percent increase over the comparable period of 2017. Border Patrol agents arrested 16,658 family members in September, the highest one-month total on record and an 80 percent increase from July.[4] The picture below is from an immigrant detention center this week in the Rio Grande Valley.[5] Reports are that this center in McAllen is receiving 3,000 persons from Central America each day. Estimates have been offered of 500,000 in this area for 2018, highest ever.[6] Centers elsewhere in Texas as well as Arizona are reported full.

 

[7]

Immigration Holding Facility in McAllen, Texas

Impact Of Demographics

These numbers of immigrants reflect the sharp demographic and economic differentials between the United States, Mexico and the countries of Central America. These differentials help to explain why people leave Mexico and Central America to come to the United States and also to increasing degrees, travel even to Canada. The economic growth from increased global trade that was expected to come to these countries to our south has not materialized in sufficient degrees to make attempts to come north less attractive. If robotics and automation continue to replace labor, then economic conditions are not likely to improve thus leading to larger numbers from poorer countries attempting to immigrate to the United States.

Economics, Demography and Education[8]

Country	Population in Millions	Median Age	Median Education Level	Average Weekly Income
U S	325	38	14	$857
Mexico	130	28	7	$190
Guatemala	17	22	6	$60
El Salvador	6	27	5	$70
Honduras	9	23	5	$50
Canada	37	42	16	$986

 

Immigrants with low levels of education will increasingly encounter difficulties finding work and work with incomes that will support the higher costs of living in the United States.

 

These costs to parents illustrate the financial demands of having children. The U.S. Department of Agriculture provides a widely cited guide to estimates of what it costs to have and raise a child to 18 years of age in the United States.[9] In 2017 the costs are estimated to be $233,610.[10] Those costs are born by the family or the state if families do not have sufficient income or if the child does not have a family.

 

In today’s world and in the future, a high school education is not sufficient to secure adequate income and a 2 or 4-year trade or college education is advised. Estimates are $50,000 per year for board, room, books and tuition for students staying away from home. Staying home reduces the cost to about $25,000 per year with substantial variations between 2 year, 4 year and public and private institutions. Thus raising a child that will be educationally prepared for work and life in the United States, today, requires an expenditure of nearly half a million dollars. This explains part of the reason for the trend of smaller American families and women delaying having children until later in life.

 

An important question is how fully can the immigrant through work and social participation repay the draw against resources that come from the community? High levels of unemployment and low wage earnings mean that the community must subsidize the immigrant.[11] These are the immediate and long term costs of an immigrate.

Stability of Neighboring Countries

Low income and limited work opportunity, a primary force, in many countries have long played a role in causing immigration to the United States. The hope of the immigrant is better employment and living opportunities. That hope is perhaps greater today than it has been for decades and the result is reflected in rising rates of immigration to the United States and projections for coming decades.

 

A newer force promoting immigration is the growing violence in Mexico and almost every country of Latin America. Mexico continues to have higher rates of violence in 2018 than in 2017, the year that set records of violence for more than two decades. This violence threatens the integrity of national and state governments in Latin America, is accompanied by organized and transnational criminal organizations and threatens the security of borders in many ways including terrorism efforts.[12]

 

A third force promoting immigration with populations coming from other parts of the globe may be climate change and failing agriculture.[13] [14]As the United States has seen in 2018 with Hurricane Michael this fall and then for a current example with record rains in the Texas Hill Country, the climate seems to be getting warmer providing more intense storms and weather variability. Crop failures can lead to starvation and there is evidence of this in some of the current immigrant flow. Guatemala, as an example, had serious declines in coffee production from leaf rust that killed coffee plants starting about 2011. Coffee production is an important part of the economy in Guatemala and source of jobs. The rust may have come from wetter and warmer conditions. Rust, warmer conditions and lower coffee prices have contributed to Guatemalan farmers abandoning fields and seeking to migrate to the United States.

Summary

Economic, Political and probably Climatic forces are increasing the numbers seeking to immigrate to the United States. Persons traveling by land will come from the southern border with Mexico. The largest numbers will come to Texas and most heavily to the Rio Grande Valley. The immediate problems are how to maintain order, shelter and feed the immigrants. Communicable disease will be an issue. The numbers and disorder will provide cover for organized crime and terrorists. Immediate costs are in the tens of millions of dollars and farther on the horizon are costs in the billions. There is no ready solution as for many of the immigrants any punishment in the United States is less severe than simply trying to live in many of the communities of Central America.

Crossings From Guatemala Into Mexico 10/20/18

 

Since 1960 the United States has been the top destination for migrants all over the world with one fifth of the world’s immigrants living here. There are approximately 44 million immigrants in the United States today. There are additionally 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States with most residing in California, Texas, New York and Florida. Most of these immigrants come from Mexico and Central America. [15] [16] Estimates are for authorized immigrants to exceed one million a year for years into the future. As the current caravan may suggest, rising rates of unauthorized immigrants are developing and Texas will likely be the initial destination. The initial estimates from areas like McAllen warn that the unauthorized numbers each year will exceed those of authorized immigrants.

 

These pressures of immigration will affect communities and nations. Housing, feeding, education and health care will be the immediate impact. All of Europe and the economic union, OPEC, are fracturing over immigration issues with migrant populations there coming from the Middle East and Africa.[17] [18] Millions of persons coming into the United States and with a large percentage first arriving in Texas is a challenge of many dimensions.

 

Societies and countries develop policies and programs to address external threats. Border controls and standing armies exist to protect against armed invasions. China built its great wall beginning in 771 BC to protect against invaders from the northwest. France built the Maginot Line after World War I to protect against German invasion. The United States and European countries created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, to protect against conflicts with the Soviet Union and now Russia. Currently the United States budgets for 54 percent of all federal discretionary spending, a total of $598.5 billion for defense.

 

What the size of the disruptions these immigration patterns represent and what programs are needed is a complex policy and budgeting decision that now looms for government! The only thing partially clear is the numbers of immigrants will run annually in the millions and continue for years. Here are some graphs we have seen before but none have 2018 data.

Over The Weekend

The caravan is reported to have formed again in Mexico north of the border with Guatemala and grown to an estimated 7,000 persons. A Roman Catholic Cardinal in the Vatican has given open support to the movement designated as part of the share the “Global Pilgrimage” announced by Pope Francis in September of 2017.[19] President Trump speaking at a rally in Arizona condemned the caravan in the strongest of terms speaking of sending the Army to the border to protect against persons seeking to enter the United States and threatening to punish Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador by stopping aid.[20] Groups in Mexico and the United States are supporting the caravan. The most visible in the April and now the current caravan is Pueblo Sin Fronteras with offices in San Diego, Ca.[i]

 

 

 

 

 

[21]

 

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/honduran-migrant-caravan-grows-4000-amid-spike-u-s-border-n921286

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/honduran-migrant-caravan-grows-4000-amid-spike-u-s-border-n921286

[3] https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Rallies-still-planned-in-El-Paso-Tornillo-13012166.php

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/record-number-of-families-crossing-us-border-as-trump-threatens-new-crackdown/2018/10/17/fe422800-c73a-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html?noredirect=on &utm_term=.4b1aa83b37fb

[5] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mcallen-texas-immigration-processing-center-largest-u-s-n884126

[6] https://riograndeguardian.com/zabaleta-kaplan-immigrant-caging-on-the-texas-mexico-border/

[7] Photo from a colleague visiting an ICE detention center in the Rio Grande Valley

[8] Sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mx.html; https://www.worlddata.info/average-income.php

[9] https://www.cnpp.usda.gov/tools/CRC_Calculator/default.aspx

[10] http://time.com/money/4629700/child-raising-cost-department-of-agriculture-report/

[11] https://cis.org/Report/Record-445-Million-Immigrants-2017

[12] https://cis.org/Bensman/What-New-White-House-National-Strategy-Counterterrorism-Says-about-US-Border-Security

[13] Emanuel, K., 2017: Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc Net. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1716222114.

[14] https://journals.tdl.org/twj/index.php/twj/article/view/6463

[15] https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states#Unauthorized

[16] https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017

[17] https://www.wsj.com/articles/immigration-standoff-shakes-merkels-fragile-government-1528912541

[18] https://cis.org/Huennekens/Whats-Going-Brussels

[19] https://www.vaticannews.va/en/church/news/2018-10/migrant-caravan-mexico-us-share-journey-interview-bishop-vasquez.html

[20] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/10/21/migrant-caravan-united-states-increases-despite-donald-trump-threats/1719819002/

[21] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

[i] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-s-behind-migrant-caravan-drew-trump-s-ire-n862566

Now

Contrast that world of 30 years ago to the one today. Mexico is urbanized no longer rural and farm based. The population is over 130 million with rapid growth of cities along the border. Most residents earn their living working in a job. Services is the dominant occupation with manufacturing, mining and oil field work as much smaller domains. Tourism is an important source of jobs with about 62 percent of all residents working in service jobs with many in tourism. Manufacturing is second with just over 20 percent. This job structure represents how important having tourists is to the Mexican economy as well as the impact of globalization that brings jobs to low-wage economies like Mexico. Earnings from Mexicans working in other countries is significant with about 5% each year coming from funds earned in other nation’s and sent to Mexico. Most of this comes from the United States.

Mexico’s transition from a rural, farming and ranching world to an urban world involved in trade, tourism and manufacturing has been a journey of the last 50 years or so. One of the headaches in this transition is developing a government that meets its responsibilities and has the respect of the population. That transition has slipped in the last two decades with national governments as the long dominant PRI lost two national elections (6 year terms) to a more conservative party, the PAN, returned to power in 2012 and then a sharply leftist party appeared in 2018. It was created by the current President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and is named Morena. The Mexican economy has stagnated during the last decade and violence has increased across the nation. A clear measure of effectiveness of government is the rate of crime.

Compare this disturbing measure: the rate of homicides. El Paso is on track to have a record number in 2022 of 65. Juarez will have about 1,000 in 2022! The population estimated for El Paso is 975,000 and 1,600,000 for Juarez at the end of 2022.

This puts the immigration on the border into a broader picture. Mexico is a very violent land and some of the extremes are along the border with the United States. Here is a regularly updated graph of violence in all the states of Mexico and many individual communities: https://elcri.men/en/violence-map/

There is a similar pattern at the other large twin city in the far west in California and Baja California.

City Population Homicides

San Diego 2,000,000 60

Tijuana 2,200,000 1,000