All posts by mll4510

The Chain of Dominoes

Mexico and Latin America are resource-rich countries that are dependent on being able to export raw materials and tropical foodstuffs. As world economies are in cyclical decline, the impact is magnified in these economies. Honduras has no bond market, Guatemala is caught without political structures and the violence of El Salavador continues. All these problems radiate in to Mexico and then to the United States. Here is an example in a news report from Reuters:

Last month, El Salvador recorded the highest number of murders since its 12-year-long civil war ended in 1992 as violence between street gangs grew more deadly. The National Forensics Institute said Wednesday that there were 911 homicides in August, making it the deadliest month in nearly a quarter of a century. From January to August, El Salvador recorded 4,246 homicides, an average of 17.5 a day, and up 67 percent over the same eight-month period in 2014. Violence has risen steadily in El Salvador since a 2012 truce between the country’s main gangs fell apart last year. The police estimate that 80 percent of the homicides are related to gang purges and the settling of scores.

Depression Ahead?

The double calamity of falling stock and commodity prices hits states with specialized economies the hardest. The downturn was inevitable with the likelihood of this last couple of weeks not being a correction but lower prices lasting at least two years. Harvard¹s Kenneth Rogoff is quoted in today¹s NY Times and mentioned made of his book with Carmen Rinehart that presented data of these recurrent patterns over the centuries

Texas has long been a state with an economy more like Saudi Arabia¹s than a California or New York or Germany. Cattle, then lumber then oil have been the major foundations of the economy over 150 years. Technology and perhaps health research represent a broader base for the state and research institutions like M.D. Anderson or the UT Austin campus or the SMU-UT Dallas complex are promising for the future. In all cases the quality of jobs being developed is critical. For example Austin has taken a wrong turn for a decade in promoting entertainment, live music and tourism. That builds a New Orleans economy of minimum wages and requisite tax-subsidies for housing, health care, transportation, education, etc..

Where Oil Turns Down And Unrest Builds

Texas may change from a state with increased jobs to increasing unemployment and given all the countries to its south are even more resource based and with younger populations, more immigrants headed north.

Cartel Tactics In Drug Flows

Bypassing El Paso

Since Prohibition in the 1920’s twin cities on the Mexico-United States border have been entry points for prohibited/contraband items. After Prohibition those cities switched to drugs and human trafficking. Becuase of the media presence in Los Angeles, Tijuana, has been prominent in fiction and media reports about drug running but other locations along the border are far more prominent in terms of amount and organization.

There are important reasons why the Cartels cross the border east of El Paso. It is open country, scantly patrolled and important from the Cartel-business perspectives leads to large markets. College towns are always a draw for drugs particularly cocaine as it is more of an “upper class” item with meth for the farmworkers, construction guys and waitresses. Texas Tech is a key.

Juarez is a known drug plaza and one that is again in play between the local cartel and the Sinaloa. Crossing east is less likely to run into other Cartel groups nor as visible to American law enforcement. One has to “connect some dots” though to see how the Cartels are moving beyond traditional plazas at the Twin Cities of the Border to other paths. This news report in August from Lubbock is clear evidence of the movement of drugs through more remote areas of west Texas from Mexico. The drug in this case is methamphetamine. There was a time a decade ago when meth or speed was made from chemicals commonly available in American communities. However controls on chemicals like anhydrous ammonia have opened a lucrative market for the Mexican Cartels. They source original chemicals from China and bring them to one of the two or three large commercial ports on the Mexican west coast, typically in the states of Sinaloa and Michoacan. The Cartels then move the chemicals as meth to border crossings. This report from Lubbock shows evidence of this path and the likelihood that it came in somewhere east of El Paso perhaps in the Big Bend.

A new, unusually pure form of Crystal Methamphetamine has been found in Lubbock, and Sheriff Kelly Rowe is seeking new funding to fight it.

“Crystal Methamphetamine is a one-time addiction drug. It’s a type of drug if your kids get hooked on it, you might as well kiss them goodbye because you probably won’t get them back,” said Sheriff Rowe.

He said crystal meth is the biggest threat facing this area.

“It’s coming in in such a high degree of purity; it’s right out of the Breaking Bad series,” Sheriff Rowe said.

In the television series Breaking Bad, the main character builds an empire by making meth that is 99.1 percent pure.

“We just got test results in a couple of days ago from a load that was 100 percent pure. None of us have even seen that before,” Sheriff Rowe said.

Sheriff Rowe says his department seized 800 percent more crystal meth in 2014 than in 2013.

Leadership and Transparency

The New York Times published an examination of one of the United States’ fastest growing new technology companies, Amazon, on August 15, Inside Amazon: Wrestling Big Ideas in a Bruising Workplace that describes a highly competitive and caustic place that looks like the early Darwinian character of capitalism where “only the strong survive”! Quoting from the story,

“You walk out of a conference room and you’ll see a grown man covering his face,” he said. “Nearly every person I worked with, I saw cry at their desk.”

Thanks in part to its ability to extract the most from employees, Amazon is stronger than ever. Its swelling campus is transforming a swath of this city, a 10-million-square-foot bet that tens of thousands of new workers will be able to sell everything to everyone everywhere. Last month, it eclipsed Walmart as the most valuable retailer in the country, with a market valuation of $250 billion, and Forbes deemed Mr. Bezos the fifth-wealthiest person on earth.jeff-bezos

The story has stirred more than just the readers of the NY Times and Bezos has been quoted to the effect that this is not Amazon and he would leave a company that treated its people as the story relates. The coming months will be interesting as this will start a leaking process and the world will learn more about the culture of working at Amazon as well as Bezos’s character and the ability of the Amazon leadership team to deal with questions about its culture.

Organizations are more than the abilities and visions of those at the top and an Amazon culture to the extent the NY Times story is accurate across the warehouses and order centers is as much a story of the depressed employment market for American workers as it is about the current success of Amazon.

I have long been involved in a different approach to creating and building organizations and much of that effort is with agencies of the State of Texas. Part of that story comes from a telephone call I received from a new Texas Governor, William Clements, in 1979. He was the first Republican elected to office since the Civil War and came to the office as a wealthy man from oil drilling concerns. ClementsHe had heard of some of my organizational research and asked if I could survey state employees to determine how they felt about working for the State of Texas. I met with him after the phone call and he said that while he used the regular reporting lines coming up through state agencies’ leadership to his office, he wanted an additional direct route to his office. I designed a survey for this task and have expanded it with a remarkable staff skilled in organizational assessment and the use of the internet over the years to gather most of the data from the internet and from all state employees. The year we started the survey it provided an immediate benefit to Texas in that employees were energized that the Governor would be interested in their perceptions and experiences.

There are two returns from this survey activity. One is the way that opening up channels in an organization creates a more innovative and powerful organization. It pushes people to think and create.

The second return is that this builds a broader culture in every community of the state where there are state employees that push for openness and transparency. If there is one antidote to the failed state of Mexico, this is it. Indeed much of this website looks at a natural experiment underway comparing Mexico to Texas and perhaps the United States. One is called a democracy but lacks transparency and trust between state and citizens. The second is called a democracy as well and strives to be open and transparent.

You may read more about the survey here: Survey

Michael Lauderdale

August 2015

Two Years After The Return Of The PRI

Our southern neighbor of 120 million and 4th largest economy in the Americas has ended the second year of the return of its dominant political party of the 20th Century, the PRI. The PRI (Party of the Institutionalized Revolution) came out of the Mexican Revolution of the second decade of the 20th century and functioned much as similar authoritarian regimes in the Soviet Union and China. There were elections but the Party chose the candidates and competing parties served as “stick figures” to promote the appearance of genuine elections and competing parties.

However by the 1970’s there began an awakening in Mexico to a world beyond its borders. This was especially true for Mexico City, geographically in the center of the country, and isolated from borders. The awakening came from travel and electronic media and especially was sparked by comparisons to Western Europe and the United States. The population was moving in Mexico from rural homesteads to the urban areas with Mexico City growing from a million in the 30’s to over 20 million by the 1970’s. Mexican leadership was recognizing that an urban Mexico would need factory jobs and eagerly responded to the overtures from George H.B. Bush and William Clinton to join the U.S. in a North American common market. Essentially the three countries watching Europe and Japan saw an opportunity to harness the raw materials of Canada, the educated labor of the United States and the young low wage labor of Mexico in an economic combine. Bush and Clinton promoted the idea of a “service economy” with the American workforce providing services and factory manufacturing being moved to Mexico. The wage differential was immense such as in electronics where hourly wages were 25 dollars to Mexico where daily wages were 3 dollars.

the_nafta_corridors

As Mexicans moved to the cities they spurred consumer markets for food, clothing, cars and apartments and homes. These consumer tastes were more accelerated in northern Mexican cities like Monterrey, Juarez, Reynosa, Veracruz where visits to the United States were common as were American media. The new consumer tastes included more equality for women, class mobility and competitive alternatives in politics. The politics were reflected in genuine electoral contests at the city and state levels and the more conservative National Action Party (PAN) won municipal elections in the north as more socialist parties won elections in rural farming communities of the south. These forces culminated in 2000 with the first Presidential election since the 1930’s of a President that was not a PRI candidate. The successful party was the PAN and one more closely allied with the North American Free Trade Agreement of Bush and Clinton. That President Vicente Fox was followed by a second successful PAN candidate, Felipe Calderon. Calderon implemented many of the NAFTA accords with Obama and Harper of Canada.1215-NAFTA-Obama-Calderon-Harper_full_600

Calderon was more of a progressive activist than Fox and sought to respond to concerns in the north of Mexico for more honest and transparent governments. Ultimately this meant taking on municipal power structures in cities like Tijuana, Juarez, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Matamoros. But these cities, long part of the PRI structure, were also involved in issuing franchises to local crime organizations that would traffic in drugs and people across to the American side. These were valuable properties, plazas, that adjoined the border on the major streets and highways in these border cities. Local governments rather than let warring gangs fight for the plazas would award them to the high bidder. In some cases local municipal police were serve as the  enforcer if another gang tried to muscle in.CentralAmerica

Calderon seeing that the local PRI and the gangs—as they consolidated and grew in power and size were termed cartels—were in partnership brought in Federal police and both the Army and the Navy’s Marines to break the police-cartel alliances. This ushered in 6 years of open bloody conflict and in one major city-plaza- Juarez resulted in 2010 of about 100 murders daily!

PenaNietoWith the election of Enrique Peña Nieto to the Presidency in July of 2012, the PRI returned to power. Pena promised honest government and less violence. Violence may or may not have declined but reporting did. Following the precedence of Mexico’s past, murders went unsolved but once again unreported. After two years international pressure created movement to remove Mexico’s most notorious Cartel boss Joaquin Guzman but in less than a year, he walked out of Mexico’s highest security prison even as the United States pressed to extradite him to face American charges. Now just two years after the inauguration of the PRI, cracks are appearing in the newly restored peaceful face of Mexico. Signs such as the torture and killing of members of the press even in what is thought to be a safe enclave of Mexico City and Cartel attacks becoming visible in the North as competition for the control of plazas along the American border heighten.

Mexico News Photographer Found Slain in Capital

MEXICO CITY — A photographer for the Mexican investigative magazine Proceso, who had fled his home state after being harassed, was among five people found slain early Saturday in an apartment in Mexico City, according to the magazine.

The body of Ruben Espinosa, who collaborated with Proceso and other media, was identified by a family member at the morgue Saturday afternoon, Proceso reported, adding that he had two gunshot wounds.

Espinosa had recently gone into self-exile from the Gulf coast state of Veracruz, where he felt under threat, according to Proceso.

Eight family members decapitated in north Mexico

Ciudad Juarez (Mexico) (AFP) – Eight people from the same family, including two minors, were kidnapped by masked gunmen and their decapitated bodies were found days later in northern Mexico, authorities said Wednesday.

The bodies were found after a ninth member of the Martinez family escaped Sunday’s abduction near Casa Quemada, in the state of Chihuahua, and alerted the authorities, prosecutors said.

The disappearance triggered a massive military operation in the region and the bodies were found this week.

CarterBeheadings

El Chapo Escapes

ChapoOn Saturday, July 11, Mexico’s wealthiest and most violent Drug Cartel chief, Joaquin (el Chapo) Guzman escaped from the nation’s highest security prison about 45 miles west of Mexico City. The escape is providing a powerful insight into how fully the Mexican state is failing. Already weakened, the return of the ancient PRI authoritarian system is accelerating in decline. The nation’s decline has become topic number one in Republican Party campaigns as Donald Trump accuses the Mexican state of shipping its criminals to the U.S. much as Fidel Castro did as he emptied Cuban prisons.

In our book, Mexico-Path to a Failed State, we explained how the lack of a civic culture and growing distrust of the Mexican state was part of the failed state process. It is accelerating and will receive growing attention from a world stunned at the brutality of the Mexican state and now its brittle response to failures!

University of Texas at Brownsville in the gunsights

I was at the 2015 Greater Austin Crime Commission annual luncheon last week where we heard the new UT Chancellor make an address that included his concerns about the existence of terrorism in many parts of the world and their potential of coming to the States. His comments brought back some thoughts I had in 2011 and 2012 when there were discussions on the UT Austin campus about having the outgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon, spending a year’s sabbatical here. While that would have been an important contribution to scholarship and improved understanding of relations with Mexico, his administration’s efforts to control the several Mexican Cartels were punctuated with violence. I had some concerns that with Nuevo Laredo then a hotbed of violence only 235 miles south down IH35 that it was an easy reach for someone who bore him a grudge to attempt violence here on our UT Austin campus.

The very nature of a university campus is open architecture and supportive of students to explore topics, people and disciplines. The existence of the violence we see in much of the Middle East and for the last decade in Mexico is antithetical to the way most universities are constructed and the social norms on a campus. I thought of this during Chancellor McRaven’s address and then when I got the below clip from National Public radio.

Several years ago I was at an early fall UT football game . Often UT Austin Police officers would drop by and we will talk about campus and city policing issues. This particular game officers ran late and said they almost did not make the game. As I recall our conversation, several had initially been advised to be at the airport for a UT plane to take them to the UT Brownsville campus. Brownsville and the UT campus had been following a violent firefight across the Rio Grande between a Cartel group and the Mexican Marines. The fight had begun in a central neighborhood of Matamoros and the Marines were pushing the Cartel fighters north toward the Rio Grande. The UT campus realized their golf course on the river was in direct line of the fighting and decided to run, I guess, a skirmish line, of UT Police to protect the buildings, students, et al.

While the original design of the UT Brownsville campus may have been an appealing approach to the Rio Grande and the international quality that the neighboring Matamoros provides, that makes far less sense when the neighbor is dissolving into chaos. Some years ago I taught on the UTEP campus when we ran our graduate program there and would watch a similar situation develop in the western part of the city of Juarez. It reached a peak about 2011 when there were 9 to 10 murders daily in that city as two Mexican cartels fought for control of the city and the drug and human trafficking routes into the U.S. via El Paso.

I am very doubtful that Mexico will turn the corner in the next few years from the violence that plagues much of the country. It seems to be endemic in some of its southern states such as Guerrero and moves along the border from Tijuana to Juarez to Nuevo Laredo to Reynosa and then Matamoros. Reynosa and Matamoros currently seem the most violent on the border.

I find several reasons for the violence. One is the nature of Mexican government that continues to be corrupt in many regions and regarded cautiously by Mexican citizens. Another is the very large youthful population of Mexico lacking advanced education and jobs. Quick wealth from the Cartels is appealing. Another is the fact that even poorer and more desperate groups lie in the countries to the south of Mexico and thousands risk crossing Mexico coming to border cities like McAllen. For all these populations the relative wealth of the United States is a magnet to draw many different groups to the country from tens of thousands unaccompanied minors, to laborers seeking work, to families fleeing poverty and violence to Cartels providing drugs and labor to exploit.

The Texas border cities, Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, Eagle Pass and El Paso, are ground zero to use military terminology and Austin is next in line.

UTBrownsville

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/04/01/396581287/matamoros-becomes-ground-zero-as-drug-war-shifts-on-mexican-border?utm_source=facebook.com

Several of us on the faculty of the School of Social Work and officers with the Austin Police are working on a Federal grant that in many ways deals with the immigration coming from Mexico and Central America into certain neighborhoods of Austin. This link leads to a copy of a Journal report of our recent findings that was released at the GACC luncheon on March 26. In the coming years more neighborhoods in Texas cities will experience what we are seeing in Rundberg.
http://www.profdevjournal.org/rundberg.html

Signposts on the Path To A Failed State

Let’s first define what we mean by a “failed state”. These are the basic functions of a governmental unit:

Providing protection of persons and property

Creating venues to resolve disputes between parties rather than interpersonal confrontations

Regulating procedures among intrastate units such as governmental units

Providing borders to delineate the physical boundaries

Assuring sound currencies to promote economic activity

Assisting in creating conditions for economic and social fulfillment

Now how well does the country of Mexico meet these basic functions?

Policing and Crime Clearances

Unsolved crimes and police conduct are prominent topics in 2014. Police actions particularly in a St. Louis suburb, Ferguson, and in Staten Island of NYC and then the murders of two NYC officers has dominated much media and public attention during the Fall and Winter months. A different issue occurred in the Mexican State of Guerrero that has ignited Mexican concerns about police, gangs and government.

Austin is determining the number of officers it will need as the City grows rapidly and this article on Houston sheds some light on American and likely Mexican issues with regard to the police.

This story is a contextual item to consider as cities decide the number of officers needed including the percent of uncommitted time. Most larger American communities have subcultures and those subcultures vary in terms of education, income levels, family structure and experiences with crime. African Americans and Hispanics suffer higher crime rates with substantial correlations between victim and perpetrator characteristics. A developing difference to the past in America is the increased rates of unsolved crimes. Today the national rate is about 62 percent, thus about 6 out of 10 cases are solved. However in the 1960’s, the clearance rate (murders solved) was 90 percent. Only the rate among white victims approaches that today with about 85 percent of murders of whites solved. Urban areas and gang and drug-related as well as rates with young males are all important factors in unsolved (no-clearance) murders. Several cities (Washington, D.C., Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Phoenix) have the highest rates.

If there are adequate numbers of police, appropriately recruited, trained and supervised; if connections are made with all of the neighborhoods, clearance rates will be high as will be trust and respect of the police. Austin has rapidly growing and changing neighborhoods with many persons from countries with low clearance rates and wary of police. Much of the population of Austin is young and the country’s major route of illegal drugs passes from Nuevo Laredo along IH 35 through Austin. In most instances the drugs are moved by gangs and a constant influence in some Austin neighborhoods. Thus several factors exist that can lower the clearance rate.

The article from Houston illustrates this lowered clearance rate. Effective police work starts with community rapport and support and if that is low then these results as Houston’s follow.

A positive note is that these rates of unsolved murders pale as compared to some other countries such as Mexico that often has rates of 98 percent unsolved murders. The murders of 43 plus community college students in the Mexican state of Guerrero in September and the attendant concern of Mexican citizens along with the failure of its governments to address such issues is not a path we want to take in our country and should alert our attention to facts such as these from Houston.

MLL
HOUSTON — At least 353 killings in Houston since 2009 remain unsolved, with only about 7 percent of those cases involving white victims, the Houston Chronicle reports.

An analysis of Houston police records by the newspaper published Sunday shows that about 90 percent of Houston homicide victims are minorities.

 Houston Chronicle

December 27, 2014 Updated: December 28, 2014 1:06pm

Vera Thompkins, right, with daughter Quinta'le Ross, still has no answers in the 2009 shooting death of her son Quincy. Photo: Marie D. De Jesus, Staff / © 2014 Houston Chronicle

Photo: Marie D. De Jesus, Staff

Vera Thompkins, right, with daughter Quinta’le Ross, still has no answers in the 2009 shooting death of her son Quincy.

Vera Thompkins was devastated but not entirely surprised when she received the kind of news that every parent fears above all. Her son had been found dead – more precisely shot to death – his body, with multiple bullet wounds, left face down on the lawn of a vacant west Houston home.

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“All I can tell you is that when it comes to homicide victims, the Houston homicide division is colorblind,” Capt. Dwayne Ready, who heads the division, said.

Chief Charles McClelland, who is black, says because of the preponderance of minority victims, it’s no coincidence that most of the unsolved cases also involve minorities.

Houston averages about 200 homicides a year, and officials said the number of closed cases in the city is about equal to the national average of 65 percent.

History shows most of the open cases likely won’t ever be solved.

Of all the Houston cases cleared in any given year, an average of 15 date back more than 12 months, the newspaper found. Like most big-city police departments, the majority are solved within 30 days, illustrating the importance of the first few days of an investigation.

Data show that 60 percent of cases involving black homicide victims over the past 51Ž2 years have been solved, while the rate for Hispanic victims is only 46 percent.

Drug-related slayings account for many of the unsolved homicides, according to Ken Peak, a criminologist who teaches at the University of Nevada-Reno.

“Clearances across the country have dropped considerably because of the gangs and the drug murders,” Peak said. “It used to be you could count on 90 percent clearance because you could trace back and identify a suspect who might have had a motive, and talk to witnesses who are willing to come forward.”

But he said that in some neighborhoods, witnesses are scared to give evidence against heavily armed gang members. Also in play is the immigration status of the witnesses, who may not be as willing to help a non-Latino officer, Peak said.

Ready said his division includes black, Hispanic and a dozen female detectives, but 58 of the 83 investigators are white.

Former Police Chief C.O. Bradford, who is now a city councilman, said that investigators may be colorblind, but that it’s more difficult for a detective who comes from a different background.

“You can’t replace what a person understands about their culture,” Bradford said. “If I don’t understand the culture, I may approach the wrong person first, or approach someone publicly who I should meet with privately.”

Thunder Road

During Prohibition moonshiners in the mountainous areas of Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia would run their product in fast cars from the stills to urban centers where customers awaited the illegal produce. The highways were called “thunder roads” because of the violence.

IH 35 in the United States and 85 in Mexico far exceed the violence of the original “thunder roads”.

IH 35 runs from Laredo, Texas to Duluth, Minnesota near the Canadian border. It is the major highway route serving the North American Free Trade system promoting manufacturing in Mexico, from Mexico City north to Nuevo Laredo. Mexican  labor costs as low as $2.50 an hour are a powerful inducement to move factories from Canada and the United States as well as European manufacturers for export.

These twin cities total a population of over 700,000 while reflecting both similarities and differences in the cultures of the Mexican and the Mexican American.

In the coming couple of months we will review some of the commonalities and differences between communities like these two. The most visible contrast is between the violence rate in the two communities. Nuevo Laredo has a rate about 25 times as high! Education levels are substantially different. Perhaps as we examine this “natural experiment” between two nearby communities we will shed some light on the reasons for high violence in all of Mexico and provide some understanding such as the reasons for the likely murder of 43 community college students in the State of Guerrero this fall. Those likely murders may turn the nation against the assurances of the PRI and the Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto that the violence of the PAN years and leadership of Fox and Calderon were why drug violence exploded from 2000 to 2012.

Mexico H85 connects to IH 35 at the border and continues via Monterrery, through the states of Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi to Mexico City. The highway is the original Pan American Highway and helps create the busiest land port in North America. At the Rio Grande the terrain is flat and shrubs and desert. However an hour or so to the South the mountains begin to appear as one approaches Monterrey.

There are four highway bridges and one rail between Laredo-Nuevo Laredo with 8,500 trucks passing each day of the year. The crossing is the key to international trade and development for the Americas.

It is also the gateway for the bulk of illegal drugs that enter the United States and long a warring site for Cartels including the Gulf, Zetas and Sinaloa. This report below from early November reminds us that this war, now not acknowledged by the Mexican government, continues.

Monterrey (Mexico) (AFP) – Gunmen killed a Mexican general sent by the government to tame violence in a northern state plagued by drug cartel crimes along the US border, authorities said.

General Ricardo Cesar Nino Villarreal and his wife were shot dead as they drove Saturday in Vallecillo, in the northern state of Nuevo Leon.

But their two-door car and the bodies were found only Sunday by people who were driving on the road linking the cities of Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo, said the security task force of the neighboring state of Tamaulipas.

More than 100 high-caliber bullet casings were found at the scene of the shooting, officials said.

Papers Relating to Mexico's Challenges from Cartel Violence

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