My research is focused on improving decision making in the face of significant uncertainty. I know of no better method than decision analysis to accomplish this goal. Decision analysis is a set of axioms, theorems, and methods to transform complex decision problems into ones where the course of action is clear. Decision analysis grew out of the fields of operations research and systems engineering in the mid-1960s and is now applied in every major industry. Please see my CV for more detail.
The following is the summary of my research interests:
- Methodological Areas of Expertise:
- Decision analysis
- Scoring of expert forecasts
- Probabilistic modeling
- Uncertainty quantification
- Individual and corporate risk preference
- Value of information and control
- Probability assessment
- Applications:
- Energy, Climate Change, Corporate Strategy and Public Policy
- Value of seismic information
- Modeling of geologic dependence
- Optimal exploration
- Climate policy
- Healthcare
- Financial Services and Trading
- Research and Development
- Sports
- Energy, Climate Change, Corporate Strategy and Public Policy