J. Eric Bickel, Ph.D.

Eric Bickel

Operations Research and Industrial Engineering

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Publications

Refereed Journal Papers, published or accepted for publication (* = Student)

  1. Hirotsu, Nobu and J. Eric Bickel. 2019 (Feb.). “Using a Markov Decision Process to Model the Value of the Sacrifice Bunt.” Forthcoming at Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
  2. Huang*, Tao and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “Sparse Probability Assessment Heuristic Based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit.” Forthcoming at Decision Analysis.
  3. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “Exploring the Accuracy of Joint-Distribution Approximations given Partial Information.” Forthcoming at The Engineering Economist.
  4. Hadlock*, Christopher and J. Eric Bickel. 2019 (Mar.). “The Generalized J-QPD System.” Decision Analysis 16(1) 67-85. doi:1287/deca.2018.0376. [email for spreadsheet]
  5. Kullawan*, K., R. B. Bratvold, J. E. Bickel. 2018 (Feb.). “Sequential Geosteering Decisions for Optimization of Real-Time Well Placement.” Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 165 90-104. doi:1016/j.petrol.2018.01.068
  6. Willigers, B. J. A., R. B. Bratvold, and J. E. Bickel. 2017 (Aug). “Maximising the Value of Unconventional Reservoirs by Choosing the Optimal Appraisal Strategy.” SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering 20(3) 1-11. doi:2118/179960-PA
  7. Hadlock*, Christopher and J. Eric Bickel. 2017 (Mar.). “Johnson Quantile-Parametrized Distributions.” Decision Analysis 14(1) 21-34. doi:1287/deca.2016.0343. Finalist 2018 Decision Analysis Journal Special Recognition Award. [email for spreadsheet]
  8. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2017 (Mar.). “Discretization Precision and Assessment Error.” Decision Analysis 14(1) 35-64. doi:1287/deca.2016.0342
  9. Kullawan*, K., R. B. Bratvold, J. E. Bickel. 2016 (Aug.). “Value Creation with Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Geosteering Operations.” International Journal of Petroleum Technology 3(1) 15-31. doi:15377/2409-787X.2016.03.01.2
  10. Hirotsu, Nobu and J. Eric Bickel. 2016 (Apr.). “Optimal batting orders in run-limit-rule baseball: A Markov-chain approach.” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 27(2) 297-313. doi:1093/imaman/dpu024
  11. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2015 (Sept.). “Discretization Methods for Continuous Probability Distributions.” Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. doi:1002/9780470400531.eorms1103
  12. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2015 (Sept.). “Decision Making with Partial Probabilistic or Preference Information.” Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. doi:1002/9780470400531.eorms1104
  13. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong Dae Kim*. 2014 (Jun.). “Reexamining the efficiency of Major League Baseball over-under betting market.” Applied Financial Economics 24(18) 1229-1234. doi:1080/09603107.2014.925052.
  14. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2014 (Sept.). “A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multi-linear Utility Functions given Partial Preference Information.” Decision Analysis 11(3) 147-170.
    doi:1287/deca.2014.0296.
  15. Kim*, Seong Dae, Robert K. Hammond*, and J. Eric Bickel. 2014 (May). “Improved Mean and Variance Estimating Formulas for PERT Analyses.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 61(2) 362-369. doi:1109/TEM.2014.2304977.
  16. Thomas*, Philip, Reidar Bratvold, and J. Eric Bickel. 2014 (Apr.). “The Risk of Using Risk Matrices.” SPE Economics & Management 6(2) 56-66. doi:2118/166269-PA.
  17. Kullawan*, K., R. Bratvold and J. E. Bickel. 2014 (Mar.). “A Decision Analytic Approach to Geosteering Operations.” SPE Drilling & Completion 29(1) 36-46. doi:2118/167433-PA.
  18. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013 (Dec.). “Generating a Random Collection of Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information.” Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 15(4) 951-967. doi:1007/s11009-012-9292-9.
  19. Puerta-Ortega*, Carlos, J. Eric Bickel and Susan Hovorka. 2013. “Assessing the value of permeability data in a carbon capture and storage project.” Forthcoming at International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control.
  20. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “On the Decision Relevance of Stochastic Oil Price Models: A Case Study.” Forthcoming at The Engineering Economist.
  21. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Continuous Probability Distributions Using the 10th, 50th, and 90th Percentiles.” Forthcoming in The Engineering Economist.
    doi:     10.1080/0013791X.2013.793761.
  22. Bickel, J. Eric. 2013. “Climate engineering and climate tipping-point scenarios.” Environment, Systems & Decisions 33(1) 152-167. doi: 10.1007/s10669-013-9435-8.
  23. Zan*, Kun and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Components of Portfolio Value of Information.” Forthcoming in Decision Analysis.
  24. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 26-41. doi:10.1287/deca.1120.0261.
  25. Hammond*, Robert K. and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions.” Decision Analysis 10(1) 6-25. doi: 10.1287/deca.1120.0260.Supplement.
  26. Keller, L. Robin, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, et al. 2012. “From the Editors-Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus.” Decision Analysis 9(4) 297-302. doi:10.1287/deca.1120.0255.
  27. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. “A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information.” Decision Analysis 9(4) 329-347. doi: 10.1287/deca.1120.0252.
  28. Bickel, J. Eric. 2012. “Discretization, Simulation, and the Value of Information.” SPE Economics & Management 4(4) 198-203. doi: 10.2118/145690-PA.
  29. Bickel, J. Eric and Shubham Agrawal*. 2012. “Reconsidering the economics of aerosol geoengineering.” Forthcoming in Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0619-x. Supplement
  30. Montiel*, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2012. “Generating a Random Collection of Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information.” Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability.
    doi: 10.1007/s11009-012-9292-9.
  31. Keller, L. Robin, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, et al. 2011. “From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis.” Decision Analysis 8(4) 251-255.
    doi:     10.1287/deca.1110.0222.
  32. Bickel, J. Eric, Eric Floehr, and Seong-Dae Kim*. 2011. “Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers.” Monthly Weather Review 139(11) 3304-3321. doi: 10.1175/2011MWR3525.1.
  33. Bickel, J. Eric, Larry W. Lake, John Lehman. 2011. “Discretization, Simulation, and Swanson’s (Inaccurate) Mean.” SPE Economics & Management 3(3) 128-140. doi: 10.2118/148542-PA.
  34. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education.” Decision Analysis 7(4) 346-357. doi: 10.1287/deca.1100.0184.  
  35. Kim*, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2010. “Roads or Radar: The Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting when Facing Hurricane Risk.” IEEE Systems Journal 4(3) 363-375.
    doi:     10.1109/JSYST.2010.2050372.
  36. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Hans Petter Lohne. 2009. “Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future.” SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 12(4) 630-638.
    doi:     10.2118/110378-PA.
  37. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “On the Decision to Take a Pitch.” Decision Analysis 6(3) 186-193.
    doi:     10.1287/deca.1090.0145.
  38. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2008. “From Uncertainty Quantification to Decision Making in the Oil and Gas Industry.” Energy Exploration and Exploitation 26(5) 311-325.
    doi:     10.1260/014459808787945344.
  39. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. “Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts.” Monthly Weather Review 136(12) 4867-4881. doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2547.1.
  40. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2008. “Quantifying the Reliability and Value of 3D Land Seismic.” SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 11(5) 832-841. doi: 10.2118/102340-PA.
  41. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. “The Relationship Between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem.” Decision Analysis 5(3) 116-128. doi: 10.1287/deca.1080.0118.
  42. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2008. “Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions,” SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 11(2) 352-361.
    doi:     10.2118/102369-PA. Spreadsheet    
  43. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. “Some Comparisons between Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules,” Decision Analysis 4(2) 49-65. doi: 10.1287/deca.1070.0089. Supplement
  44. Bickel, J. Eric. 2006. “Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion,” Decision Analysis 3(4) 233-251. doi: 10.1287/deca.1060.0080.
  45. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006. “Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model,” Decision Analysis 3(1), 16-32. doi: 10.1287/deca.1050.0052. Spreadsheet
  46. Pickering, Steve and J. Eric Bickel. 2006. “The Value of Seismic Information,” Oil and Gas Financial Journal 3(5), 26-33.
  47. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. “Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples,” INFORMS Transactions on Education 5(1) 2-9. doi: 10.1287/ited.5.1.2.
  48. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. “Why it is So Hard to Hit .400: New Insights into an Old Statistic,” The Baseball Research Journal 32, 15-21.
  49. Bickel, J. Eric and Dean A. Stotz. 2002. “Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type: Fact and Fallacy,” The Baseball Research Journal 31, 29-34.

Manuscripts Under Review (* = Student)

  1. Smith*, Zachary and J. Eric Bickel. 2019 (May). “Weighted Scoring Rules and ϕ-Divergences.” Under review at Operations Research.
  2. Almansour*, Abdulaziz, Stephen E. Laubach, J. Eric Bickel, and Richard A. Schultz. 2019 (May). “Value of Information Analysis of a Fracture Prediction Method.” Under review at SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
  3. Smith*, Zachary and J. Eric Bickel. 2019 (Apr.). “Additive Scoring Rules for Discrete Sample Spaces.” Under review at Decision Analysis.
  4. Huidong*, Zhang, Christopher Hadlock*, J. Eric Bickel, and Eric van Oort. 2019 (Apr.). “Risk Assessment of Cement Barrier Failure due to Design Changes in Deepwater Well Construction.” Under review at Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering.
  5. Naeini*, Milad Eghtedari, Benjamin D. Leibowicz, J. Eric Bickel. 2019 (Apr.). “Can you trust a model whose output keeps changing? Interpreting changes in the social cost of carbon produced by the DICE model.” Under review at Ecological Economics.

Book Chapters

  1. Bickel, J. Eric. 2015. “QUANTIFYING THE BENEFIT OF CCS MONITORING AND VERIFICATION TECHNOLOGIES.” In: Carbon Dioxide Capture for Storage in Deep Geological Formations, Volume 4, pp. 493-530. Kevin Dodds (ed.). CPL Press and BP, Cambridge, UK.
  2. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2013. “Climate Engineering: Climate Engineering R&D.” In: Global Problems, Smart Solutions, Bjørn Lomborg (ed.). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. This work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus 2012 led by Bjørn Lomborg. Expert panel: Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Robert Mundell (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey.
  3. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2013. “CLIMATE ENGINEERING AND R&D.” In: How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, pp. 135-136. Bjørn Lomborg. Copenhagen Consensus Center, Washington, DC.
  4. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2011. “Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions.” Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
  5. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Hans Petter Lohne. 2011. “Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future.” Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
  6. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2011. “Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value.” Decision Analysis in E&P. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, Texas.
  7. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2010. “Climate Engineering.” In: Smart Solutions for Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits, Bjørn Lomborg (ed). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
    a. This work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate Project. The Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC) has been named by the University of Pennsylvania as one of the top-10 think tanks in the world. http://www.gotothinktank.com/
    b. The CCC is directed by Bjørn Lomborg, who has been named one of the 100 Top Global Thinkers by Foreign Policy, one of the world’s 75 most influential people by Esquire, and one of 50 people who could save the planet by the UK Guardian.
    c. Our research was ranked first by an expert panel comprised of Jagdish Bhagwati, Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey. http://fixtheclimate.com/#/component-1/the-result-prioritization/

Technical Reports

  1. Bickel, J. Eric, et al. 2016. “Guidance for Decision Quality for Multicompany Upstream Projects.” Society of Petroleum Engineers Technical Report.
  2. Bickel, J. Eric. 2013. “Quantifying the Benefit of CCS Monitoring and Verification Technologies.” BP In Salah CO2 Capture Project.
  3. Lane, Lee and J. Eric Bickel. 2013. “Solar Radiation Management: An Evolving Climate Policy Option.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
  4. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2012. “Climate Engineering: Climate Engineering R&D.” Copenhagen Consensus 2012 led by Bjørn Lomborg. Expert panel: Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Robert Mundell (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey. PDF.
  5. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “The Climate Engineering Option: Economics and Policy Implications.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. PDF
  6. Lane, Lee and J. Eric Bickel. 2009. “Solar Radiation Management and Rethinking the Goals of COP-15.” In: Bickel, J. Eric, Lee Lane, Chris Green, Isabel Galiana, and Valentina, Introduction by Bjørn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers. http://fixtheclimate.com/
  7. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2009. “The Potential Benefits of Climate Engineering: A Case for Research.” In: Copenhagen Consensus Recommendations for COP-15. Solutions ranked #1 and #3 by an expert panel of economists including three Nobel laureates in economics. You can find the results here http://fixtheclimate.com. You can read about my experience here.

Conference Proceedings

  1. Zhang*, Pu and J. Eric Bickel. 2015. “Near-Earth Asteroids and the Value of Search.” Proceedings of the 2015 Industrial and Systems Engineering Research Conference, May 30 – June 2.
  2. Canion*, B., E. Bickel, C. Hadlock*, D. Morton, and E. Schneider. 2013. “Game Theoretic Analysis of Physical Protection System Design.” Proceedings of GLOBAL 2013, September 29 – October 3.
  3. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “Experiential Learning and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules,” ASEE Annual Conference, Paper AC 2009-2249, Austin, TX, 17 June. PDF
  4. Bickel. J. Eric and Kun Zan. 2009. “Resource Allocation and the Value of Information,” Grant # 090774 presented at the NSF CMII Research and Innovation Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, 25-29 June. PDF
  5. Yu, O.-Y, S. D. Guikema, J. E. Bickel, J.-L. Briaud, and D. B. Burnett. 2009. “Systems Approach and Quantitative Decision Tools for Technology Selection in Environmentally Friendly Drilling,” paper SPE 120848 presented at the SPE Environmental & Safety Conference, San Antonio, Texas, 23-25 March.
  6. Arcos, D., D. Zhu, and E. Bickel. 2008. “Technical, Economic and Risk Analysis for a Multilateral Well,” paper SPE 115099 presented at the SPE Russian Oil and Gas Technical Conference and Exhibition, Moscow, Russia, 28-30 October.
  7. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2008. “Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Tropical Cyclone Risk,” 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, 28 April -02 May. PDF
  8. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. “Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts,” presented at the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 88th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 23 January. PDF
  9. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. “Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion,” paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.
  10. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. “Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future,” paper SPE 110378 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.
  11. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2007. “Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Hurricane Risk,” Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Society of Engineering Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 21-24 October. PDF
  12. Gibson, Rick, J. Eric Bickel, Duane McVay, and Steve Pickering. 2007. ” Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Seismic Information Value,” SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts 26(1), 71-75. PDF
  13. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2006. “Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions,” paper SPE 102369 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.
  14. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. “Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value,” paper SPE 102340 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.
  15. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. “Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets,” EAGE Expanded Abstracts, B012. PDF

In Preparation for Journal Submission (* = Student)

  1. Hadlock*, Christopher and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “Simplified Modeling of Dependence using QPDs.” To be submitted to Decision Analysis.
  2. Hadlock*, Christopher and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “Quantile-Based Discretizations.” To be submitted to Decision Analysis.
  3. Beck*, Andrew and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “New Methods for Improved Decision Making in Unconventional Field Development.” To be submitted to SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
  4. Beck*, Andrew and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “How Important is Modeling Risk Aversion?” To be submitted to Decision Analysis.
  5. Woodruff*, Josh and J. Eric Bickel. 2019. “Shape-Matching Discretizations for Decision Analysis.” To be submitted to Decision Analysis.

CONTACT

Email: ebickel@utexas.edu

Phone: (512) 232-8316

Fax: (512) 232-1489

Office: ETC 5.128C

© J. Eric Bickel 2019

Operations Research and Industrial Engineering

Walker Department of Mechanical Engineering

Cockrell School of Engineering

The University of Texas at Austin

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