Introduction
In this section we present drilldown analyses of two gentrifying areas of Austin: the Montopolis neighborhood in near-southeast Austin, and St. John’s-Coronado Hills in Northeast Austin (see map below). According to our analysis, both neighborhoods are in relatively early phases of gentrifying.
A drilldown analysis is a technique introduced by Dr. Lisa Bates of Portland State University in her 2013 gentrification and displacement study of Portland. Our analyses of Montopolis and St. John’s- Coronado Hills are based heavily on Bates’s procedure, albeit with some modi cations. A drilldown is intended to be a data-intensive examination of the relevant socioeconomic and housing market conditions affecting various vulnerable subpopulations within a given neighborhood. Whereas our citywide mapping methodology presented in the above section allows for neighborhoods across the city to be classified based on vulnerability and gentrification stage using widely-available census data, a drilldown is a more nuanced, multifaceted analysis focused on a particular census tract (typically containing between 2,500 and 8,000 residents). A drilldown is a useful first step before embarking on place-based anti-displacement advocacy or policy development. It would be relatively straightforward for the City of Austin or another interested party to replicate the drilldown analyses we present here for other tracts that stand in the path of gentrification and displacement pressures.
At this point it is useful to note what a drilldown is not: a drilldown is not a qualitative analysis that allows for deep narrative descriptions of a given neighborhood’s unique history, culture, or underlying social dynamics. Both data gathering and detailed descriptions of conditions in impacted communities are valuable, useful, and complementary. The latter requires on-the-ground engagement efforts, which can include (but are not limited to) direct observations; interviews with neighborhood leaders, residents, and business owners; review of written materials such as media articles and archival materials; and survey work. We do not claim to have conducted such work in Montopolis or St. John’s-Coronado Hills; it is beyond the scope of our project. It is almost certain that our drilldown analyses have missed important “ground truths” about the neighborhoods we have examined that could only be obtained from qualitative work. It would be advisable, as time and resources permit, to engage in such studies as a complement to drilldown analyses and other data-intensive methods.
Data Sources
A drilldown analysis, as we present it here, relies on several separate distinct data sources.
American Community Survey
American Community Survey (ACS) data is published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Unless otherwise noted, all ACS figures quoted in the drilldown analyses are for 2012-2016. Since 2006, the ACS has released updated data on a yearly basis. For data collected at the level of census tracts, only five-year data (i.e., data collected over a period of five years) is available. The tract-level 2012- 2016 data discussed here are the most recent data available at the writing of this report.
Even though 2016 (1-year) ACS data is available for the City of Austin and for the Austin MSA, using that data in juxtaposition with gures taken from the census tract level (which are only available as ve-year data) would lead to misleading comparisons. For that reason, we use ve- year (2012-2016) ACS data for all recent gures quoted here. Data from 1990 and 2000 are taken from the decennial censuses conducted in those years.
Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy
Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data are published by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for every local governmental entity, including Austin, that receives federal housing subsidies. It is readily obtainable online. Some amount of effort is required to aggregate CHAS data into the categories that are reported here.
Residential sales data
For calculations of residential sales volume and per-square foot prices, we relied on data provided courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors (ABOR). Such data is not available to the general public without paying a fee to a third-party aggregator. Some amount of work is needed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software to filter sales data down to the level of particular census tracts.
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data
The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) is federal legislation that requires certain federally- regulated mortgage lenders to report information on the rates of mortgage approval and rejection by race and ethnicity of the borrower or would-be borrower, along with other useful information. This data is readily obtainable via the Web and is relatively easy to work with.
Existing affordable housing data
Subsidized housing in the United States is delivered via a large, decentralized network of providers, funders, and other participants. A typical development will have multiple funding sources which may be local, state, federal, or philanthropic dollars. As a result, it can be dif cult to track exactly what subsidized housing is in place and when its existing affordability restrictions are set to expire. Although there are useful subsidized housing registries, they often contain errors or are otherwise incomplete in their coverage. The best course of action is to review multiple data sources and attempt to resolve inconsistencies as they arise. For our analysis we relied on data provided by the City of Austin; the Texas Department and Community Affairs; National Housing Preservation Database (NHPD), available online; online searches of Travis County Appraisal District (TCAD) ownership and property tax records; internal data sets; and communications with professional contacts.
Vacant address data
The United States Postal Service (USPS) makes available vacant address data, which can be a useful gauge of both housing abandonment and the level of intensity of commercial activity. Obtaining the data requires affiliation with a governmental or academic institution and making an online request to the federal government, which can take several weeks to process.
Public school data
Data on public school enrollment and demographic composition for every school in Texas can be readily downloaded from School Report Cards maintained by the Texas Education Agency (TEA).