The Uprooted Project

St. Johns-Coronado Hills

Summary

The St. John’s and Coronado Hills neighborhoods are located in two adjacent census tracts (18.12 and 18.11, respectively) that we analyze together in this drilldown. St. John’s lies to the west of Cameron Road, and is classified as Early Type 1 under the gentrification typology used in this report, and its real estate market is classified as Accelerating. Coronado Hills, to the east of Cameron Road, and slightly more distant from other gentrifying neighborhoods to the west, is at an earlier stage, classified as Susceptible, with real estate market conditions classified as Adjacent (i.e., not yet “hot” but located next to a tract that is).

St. John’s-Coronado Hills is overwhelmingly inhabited by people of color, most of whom are Latinos, albeit with a notable African-American population, and renters. Education levels are generally low. Incomes are also low and have dropped in real terms over time. High percentages of families experience linguistic isolation. The particularly vulnerable subpopulations of elderly households and large families are both, not surprisingly, struggling with high housing costs. In short, St. John’s-Coronado Hills has a high concentration of vulnerable residents. Meanwhile, although the rent-restricted affordable housing stock that exists appears to be relatively secure for the next decade or more, it represents only a scant six percent of the total housing units in St. John’s-Coronado Hills.

According to the U.S. Census, property values, after dropping in the 1990s, have increased relatively modestly since 2000 by recent Austin standards. More timely residential sales data from the Multiple Listing Service does not yet show a major increase in sales volume or prices. However, there are at least three worrying signs that gentrification and accompanying displacement may soon arrive in St. John’s Coronado Hills. First, although the white population has ticked up only slightly, this increase is more notable than it appears at first glance when considered relative to the substantial percentage decrease in white population at the citywide and MSA levels. Furthermore, over half of new mortgage borrowers are white—far out of proportion to the white population’s share of current residents in the two neighborhoods. Finally, over the last decade there has been a sharp intensification of commercial and construction activity, although it is unclear if this is connected to present or impending gentrification.

St. John’s-Coronado Hills appears to lie squarely in the path of possible future gentri cation emanating eastward from across I-35, and northward from the successful Mueller redevelopment. The recent rollout of a new high-frequency bus line leading to UT and downtown, as well as current tollway construction on US 183 that in several years will expand freeway accessibility to large numbers of jobs, suggest that these neighborhoods will likely only increase their appeal to homebuyers. Meanwhile, the existing population is vulnerable, and organizing current residents will likely face substantial obstacles owing to very low homeownership rates and high levels of linguistic isolation.

Note on data calculations:

All results reported below are blended from figures for the census tracts equating to the St. John’s and Coronado Hills neighborhoods. They are computed as weighted averages, weighted by population, number of housing units, or number of business establishment addresses for each tract, as appropriate.

Gentrification typology assessment

Vulnerable populations:

  • St. John’s-Coronado Hills neighborhoods’ residents are 81% people of color, compared to 51% in the City of Austin and 47% in the Austin MSA. Source: American Community Survey (ACS).
  • Of St. John’s-Coronado Hills households, 80% are renters, compared to 55% in the City of Austin and 42% in the Austin MSA (ACS).
  • St. John’s-Coronado Hills residents over age 25 are disproportionately unlikely to have a four- year postsecondary degree or higher educational attainment (22% vs. 48% citywide and 42% MSA-wide) (ACS).

Incomes are low; most (69%) households earn 80% or less of median family income. Source: Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS).

Demographic changes (2000 to 2012-2016):

  • St. John’s-Coronado Hills’ share of non-Hispanic white residents increased +2 percentage points, an amount that is substantial when one considers that the citywide (-4 percentage points) and MSA (-7) shares have decreased to a considerable degree (ACS).
  • Homeownership rates essentially remained the same in St. John’s-Coronado Hills. Homeownership rates in Austin and the MSA also remained largely unchanged during that time (ACS).
    • The share of college-educated residents (i.e., those with a four-year degree or higher) rose by 9 percentage points, which kept pace with Austin (+7) and surpassed the MSA (+5). (ACS).
    • In real (inflation-adjusted terms), median household income in St. John’s-Coronado Hills drastically decreased, by 23%, to $31k in 2012-2016. This lags far behind Austin ($61k) and the MSA ($66k), which experienced drops of 1% and 6%, respectively (ACS).

    Housing Market Conditions

    • Owner-occupants in St. John’s-Coronado Hills in 2012-2016 reported home values with a median of $168k, well below the citywide median of $258k and the MSA median of $224k (ACS).
    • During the 1990s, reported home values in St. John’s-Coronado Hills decreased in real (in ation- adjusted) terms by 14%, while they increased citywide (+31%) and in the MSA (+25%) (ACS).
    • From 2000 to 2012-2016, the trend reversed—St. John’s-Coronado Hills home values increased in real terms by 11%. Still, this growth lagged far behind the city (+53%) and the MSA (+31%) (ACS).
    • More recent Multiple Listing Service (MLS) residential sales data suggests that home sales are slow and decreasing and that housing appreciation is at: From 2015 to 2017, sales dropped from 27 to 16 (a 41% decrease), and per-square foot prices barely increased from $199 to $205 in 2017 dollars (a 3% increase in real terms). See chart below; note that sales volume data for 2018 is omitted because the year is not yet complete. Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data, courtesy of Austin Board of Realtors (ABOR).

    Housing highlights

Affordability:

  • Of St. John’s-Coronado Hills homeowner households earning less than 80% of median family income (11% of total households), 25% are cost burdened and 37% are severely cost burdened (CHAS).

Of St. John’s-Coronado Hills renter households earning less than 80% of median family income (63% of total households), 36% are cost burdened and 38% are severely cost burdened (CHAS).

Affordability for seniors and large families:

  • Seniors: Among elderly households earning less than 80% of median family income (484 households, or 10% of all households in St. John’s-Coronado Hills), 21% are cost burdened (spending 30% to 50% of income on housing), 39% are severely cost burdened (spending over 50% of income on housing), and 3% report either zero or negative income (CHAS).
  • Large families: Of large family (5 or more person) households (304 households, or 12% of all households in St. John’s-Coronado Hills) earning less than 80% of median family income, 62% are cost burdened, and 16% are severely cost burdened (CHAS).

New buyers

  • In 2016, 89 people applied for a home purchase loan in St. John’s-Coronado Hills. Of these, 53% were white non-Hispanic, 3% were Asian non-Hispanic, 13% were Hispanic, 4% were African American non-Hispanic, and 25% were of unknown race and ethnicity. Loans to whites were denied far less often (2% of applications) than loans to Hispanics (33%). Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data.

Income-restricted affordable housing:

  • There are 290 income-restricted housing units in St. John’s-Coronado Hills, or 6% of the total housing stock (including vacant units), in five developments. The earliest known expiration of these assisted units will occur in 2032. Sources: City of Austin subsidized housing inventory; National Housing Preservation Database.