EMPCT WORKING PAPER SERIES The EMPCT Working Paper Series is a collection of recent research publications or working papers by the scholars affiliated with the Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas. How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC Discussions EMPCT Working Paper Series No. 2025-1054 pages | PDF Download | PDF in Browser Howes, Cooper, Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, “How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC Discussions,” December 2025 AbstractWe construct a new dataset of FOMC meeting transcripts from 1966 to 1990 to analyze the sources of heterogeneity in individual monetary policy preferences and study how this heterogeneity shapes policy decisions. Using these detailed discussions, we manually quantify and characterize each FOMC participants’ preferred policies along with their reasoning and justification. We show that participants’ beliefs about the effects of monetary policy—specifically, their perceived slope of the Phillips Curve—play a central role. Participants who believe monetary policy has stronger effects on real activity are more likely to cite output as a justification for easing, while those perceiving stronger price effects emphasize inflation as a reason for tightening. We then show that the Chair plays a unique and powerful role in reconciling these views, not just in setting policy rates, but also in minimizing dissent. The latter occurs because dissenters find their ability to influence policy in subsequent meetings is significantly curtailed. Reference No.TitleAuthor(s)Download 2025-10How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC DiscussionsCooper Howes, Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy GorodnichenkoPDF, 3.5MB 2025-09The Economic Impact of Mass DeportationsJavier Cravino, Andrei A. Levchenko, Francesc Ortega and Nitya Pandalai-NayarPDF, 8.2MB 2025-08The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and SpendingYuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, and Olivier CoibionPDF, 1 MB 2025-07The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global CompetitionJaedo Choi, George Cui, Younghun Shim, Yongseok ShinPDF, 0.9 MB 2025-06The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges (Revised)Oliver PfautiPDF, 2.1 MB 2025-05INFLATION, EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED AND TO WHAT END?Olivier Coibion, Yuriy GorodnichenkoPDF, 1.3 MB 2025-04Firms’ Inflation and Wage Expectations During the Inflation SurgeErwan Gautier, Frédérique Savignac, Olivier CoibionPDF, 4.5 MB 2025-03Attention to the MacroeconomySebastian Link, Andreas Peichl, Oliver Pfauti, Christopher Roth, Johannes WohlfartPDF, 1MB 2025-02Fast and Slow Technological TransitionsRodrigo Adão, Martin Beraja, Nitya Pandalai-NayarPDF, 2.2MB 2025-01How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi ApproachGeorgarakos, Dimitris, Kwang Hwan Kim, Olivier Coibion, Myungkyu Shim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Seowoo Han, and Michael WeberPDF, 1.3MB 2024-01Keeping Up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and HappinessMaarten van Rooij, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Bernardo Candia, and Yuriy GorodnichenkoPDF, 2.1 MB 2024-02The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation SurgesOliver PfäutiPDF, 1.8 MB 2024-03Illiquid Lemon Markets and the MacroeconomyAimé Bierdel, Andres Drenik, Juan Herreño, Pablo OttonelloPDF, 10 MB 2024-04Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and EvidenceHassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, and Edson WuPDF, 1.5 MB 2024-05Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield ShockChristoph E. Boehm and T. Niklas KronerPDF, 1.4 MB 2024-06Concentration,Market Power, andMisallocation: The Role of Endogenous Customer Acquisition*Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Drenik, and Ryan KimPDF, 5.9 MB 2024-07Playing with blocs: Quantifying decouplingBarthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma, Petia TopalovaPDF, 4.2MB 2024-08Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate RiskJuanma Castro-Vencenzi, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar,PDF, 11.7 MB 2024-09Dynamic Models, New Gains from Trade?Christoph E. Boehm, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi TomaPDF, 780.3 KB
