EMPCT WORKING PAPER SERIES The EMPCT Working Paper Series is a collection of recent research publications or working papers by the scholars affiliated with the Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas. The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations EMPCT Working Paper Series No. 2025-0969 pages | PDF Download | PDF in BrowserCravino, Javier, Levchenko, Andrei A., Ortega, Francesc, and Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, “The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations”, September 2025 AbstractThis paper quantifies the effects of large-scale deportation policies on wages, prices, andreal incomes in the United States. We impute the legal status for each worker in the AmericanCommunity Survey by combining detailed individual information with group-level visarecords. In 2024, 3% of US workers were unauthorized, but these workers were highly concentratedgeographically, by industry, and by occupation. We then develop a multi-region,multi-sector, multi-occupation quantitative framework with heterogeneous workers to studythe economic impacts of the removal of unauthorized workers. We state analytical results thatrelate region- and occupation-specific real wage and sectoral relative price changes to shocks tothe supply of immigrant workers, observable shares of immigrant workers in occupations andregions, and combinations of structural elasticities. Following the removal of 50% of unauthorizedimmigrants, average native real wages decline in every state, and by 0.3% at the nationallevel. At the same time nationwide native wages in the most immigrant-intensive occupationsrise by up to 3.4% in our baseline calibration. The deportation shock increases the averagewages of immigrants , by 12.2% for the unauthorized workers remaining in the country, and3.2% for the authorized. Consumer prices in the sectors with the highest unauthorized presence– such as Farming – rise by about 1% relative to price of the average consumption basket,while most other sectors experience negligible relative price changes. The overall cost of livingrises by about 0.7% more in the regions hosting the most unauthorized immigrants, comparedto regions with minimal presence of unauthorized workers. Reference No.TitleAuthor(s)Download 2025-09The Economic Impact of Mass DeportationsJavier Cravino, Andrei A. Levchenko, Francesc Ortega and Nitya Pandalai-NayarPDF, 8.2MB 2025-08The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and SpendingYuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, and Olivier CoibionPDF, 1 MB 2025-07The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global CompetitionJaedo Choi, George Cui, Younghun Shim, Yongseok ShinPDF, 0.9 MB 2025-06The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges (Revised)Oliver PfautiPDF, 2.1 MB 2025-05INFLATION, EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED AND TO WHAT END?Olivier Coibion, Yuriy GorodnichenkoPDF, 1.3 MB 2025-04Firms’ Inflation and Wage Expectations During the Inflation SurgeErwan Gautier, Frédérique Savignac, Olivier CoibionPDF, 4.5 MB 2025-03Attention to the MacroeconomySebastian Link, Andreas Peichl, Oliver Pfauti, Christopher Roth, Johannes WohlfartPDF, 1MB 2025-02Fast and Slow Technological TransitionsRodrigo Adão, Martin Beraja, Nitya Pandalai-NayarPDF, 2.2MB 2025-01How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi ApproachGeorgarakos, Dimitris, Kwang Hwan Kim, Olivier Coibion, Myungkyu Shim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Seowoo Han, and Michael WeberPDF, 1.3MB 2024-01Keeping Up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and HappinessMaarten van Rooij, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Bernardo Candia, and Yuriy GorodnichenkoPDF, 2.1 MB 2024-02The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation SurgesOliver PfäutiPDF, 1.8 MB 2024-03Illiquid Lemon Markets and the MacroeconomyAimé Bierdel, Andres Drenik, Juan Herreño, Pablo OttonelloPDF, 10 MB 2024-04Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and EvidenceHassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, and Edson WuPDF, 1.5 MB 2024-05Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield ShockChristoph E. Boehm and T. Niklas KronerPDF, 1.4 MB 2024-06Concentration,Market Power, andMisallocation: The Role of Endogenous Customer Acquisition*Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Drenik, and Ryan KimPDF, 5.9 MB 2024-07Playing with blocs: Quantifying decouplingBarthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma, Petia TopalovaPDF, 4.2MB 2024-08Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate RiskJuanma Castro-Vencenzi, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar,PDF, 11.7 MB 2024-09Dynamic Models, New Gains from Trade?Christoph E. Boehm, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi TomaPDF, 780.3 KB
