What does the Trump win mean for the U.S. and global economic outlook?
November 13, 2024
By Olivier Coibion and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Excerpt-After a long campaign, we have a clear outcome to the election: a Trump victory combined with a likely Republican majority in both houses of Congress. How should we expect this outcome to affect the economic outlook for the U.S. and the rest of the world? Yogi Bera once said “it’s hard to make forecasts, especially about the future.” But given the number of policy changes promised by candidate Trump and that President Trump will soon be free to implement, we view this as an opportune time to reflect on the main forces that we expect to see at work in coming months and years.
Lifetime Memories of Inflation:
September 25, 2024
By Isabelle Salle, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Summary – The post-pandemic surge saw an entire generation live through its first episode of significant and persistent inflation. In this blog, the authors investigate how people’s memories of past inflation affect their beliefs about future inflation, using a survey and a lab experiment. They find that memories of past inflation can have long-lived effects on individuals’ inflation expectations. Since these expectations shape the tradeoff that policymakers face in trying to stabilize economic conditions, this suggests that the consequences of the recent inflation on policy-making may continue to be felt long after inflation has been tamed.
