The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding
January 17, 2025
By Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber
Excerpt-With the new Trump administration, the prospect of new tariffs on our trading partners grows ever nearer. What do Americans expect that Trump will do with these tariffs and what effects do they anticipate these might have?
How Firms Adapt Supply Chains to Climate Risk
January 14, 2025
By Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna, and Nicolas Morales
Excerpt-As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events and unpredictable climate patterns pose growing threats to economies worldwide. The ongoing unseasonal fires in densely populated, economically important areas of Los Angeles highlight the risks faced to firms and workers from their location choices, given the growing prevalence of such climate shocks.
What does the Trump win mean for the U.S. and global economic outlook?
November 13, 2024
By Olivier Coibion and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Excerpt-After a long campaign, we have a clear outcome to the election: a Trump victory combined with a likely Republican majority in both houses of Congress. How should we expect this outcome to affect the economic outlook for the U.S. and the rest of the world? Yogi Bera once said “it’s hard to make forecasts, especially about the future.” But given the number of policy changes promised by candidate Trump and that President Trump will soon be free to implement, we view this as an opportune time to reflect on the main forces that we expect to see at work in coming months and years.
Lifetime Memories of Inflation:
September 25, 2024
By Isabelle Salle, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Summary – The post-pandemic surge saw an entire generation live through its first episode of significant and persistent inflation. In this blog, the authors investigate how people’s memories of past inflation affect their beliefs about future inflation, using a survey and a lab experiment. They find that memories of past inflation can have long-lived effects on individuals’ inflation expectations. Since these expectations shape the tradeoff that policymakers face in trying to stabilize economic conditions, this suggests that the consequences of the recent inflation on policy-making may continue to be felt long after inflation has been tamed.
