Did US Multinationals Transfer Too Much Technology to China?September 24, 2025By Jaedo Choi, Yongseok Shin Excerpt – China’s Quid Pro Quo policy, which has mandated foreign multinationals to form joint ventures as a way to promote technology transfers into China, has long been at the center of the US-China economic rivalry. Because joint venture ownership is split between local Chinese firms and foreign multinationals, Chinese partners engage in management and decision-making, which can facilitate technology transfers more effectively than other forms of foreign direct investment (FDI). The Economic Ripple Effects of Mass DeportationsSeptember 9, 2025By Javier Cravino, Andrei A. Levchenko, Francesc Ortega and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar Excerpt – The U.S. is in the midst of an unprecedented wave of deportations. Between January and July 2025, nearly 150,000 individuals were deported, and the provision of a total of $170 billion in new federal funding for immigration enforcement suggests these efforts will continue. This raises several key economic questions and concerns: How will this policy reshape the economy? Will consumer prices of everyday items such as food soar? Will American workers benefit? When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at HomeAugust 25, 2025By Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier CoibionExcerpt – What do the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East mean for your grocery bill, your savings, and your spending decisions? For most of us, they feel like tragedies happening far away. But new evidence shows they reach into our households in subtle yet powerful ways — by reshaping how people view the economic future. How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial ConditionsJuly 15, 2025By Christoph E Boehm and Niklas KronerExcerpt – It is well-known that changes in US interest rates can have a major impact on global financial markets, but how does other US economic news affect the rest of the world? In new research, Christoph Boehm and Niklas Kroner find that global stock prices jump immediately, and in a synchronized way, to news releases about changes in the US economy and that US monetary policy can have a stabilizing role following such releases. In contrast, foreign economic news releases have little to no effect on US markets. How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-MakingJune 3, 2025By: Erwan Gautier, Frédérique Savignac, and Olivier CoibionExcerpt – As inflation surged across the globe in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, economists and policymakers worried that rising inflation expectations could become entrenched and drive a wage-price spiral. While much of the attention on expectations focused on households and financial markets, relatively little was known about the expectations of firms—the agents directly responsible for setting prices and wages, due to the absence of data on their beliefs. What’s happening with inflation expectations?April 25, 2025By: Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier CoibionExcerpt – Economic policymakers spend a lot of time dissecting different measures of inflation expectations in the economy, since these affect prices, wages, consumption and many other outcomes. Over the last year or so, a major gap has appeared between two of the leading surveys of U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations: the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumption Expectations (SCE) and the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). The latter displays high levels of expected inflation since the inflation surge whereas the former reports low “anchored” levels, as shown in Figure 1. Which is correct? The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling?April 18, 2025By: Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, and Hiroshi TomaExcerpt – As geopolitical tensions rise between major powers, concerns intensify over the economic implications of trade fragmentation. Policymakers worldwide are concerned that the US-China trade war, Brexit, and the breakdown of economic ties between the West and Russia are all signs of a hazardous trend toward “deglobalization.” Yet despite these challenges, global trade remained surprisingly resilient. Skill Specificity and the Pace of Technological Change: Lessons from HistoryMarch 5, 2025By Rodrigo Adão (Chicago Booth), Martin Beraja (UC Berkeley Haas), and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (UT Austin) Excerpt-As artificial intelligence reshapes the workplace, policymakers and business leaders are confronted with a pivotal question: how quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? What would you pay to eliminate business cycles or inflation?February 20, 2025By Dimitris Georgarakos, Kwang Hwan Kim, Olivier Coibion, Myungkyu Shim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Seowoo Han, and Michael Weber Excerpt-Imagine a world where macroeconomic ups and downs don’t disrupt our lives. No recessions that put your job at greater risk, no skyrocketing prices, no financial crises, etc. Sounds ideal, right? The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are RespondingJanuary 17, 2025By Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber Excerpt-With the new Trump administration, the prospect of new tariffs on our trading partners grows ever nearer. What do Americans expect that Trump will do with these tariffs and what effects do they anticipate these might have? How Firms Adapt Supply Chains to Climate RiskJanuary 14, 2025By Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna, and Nicolas Morales Excerpt-As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events and unpredictable climate patterns pose growing threats to economies worldwide. The ongoing unseasonal fires in densely populated, economically important areas of Los Angeles highlight the risks faced to firms and workers from their location choices, given the growing prevalence of such climate shocks. What does the Trump win mean for the U.S. and global economic outlook?November 13, 2024By Olivier Coibion and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar Excerpt-After a long campaign, we have a clear outcome to the election: a Trump victory combined with a likely Republican majority in both houses of Congress. How should we expect this outcome to affect the economic outlook for the U.S. and the rest of the world? Yogi Bera once said “it’s hard to make forecasts, especially about the future.” But given the number of policy changes promised by candidate Trump and that President Trump will soon be free to implement, we view this as an opportune time to reflect on the main forces that we expect to see at work in coming months and years. Lifetime Memories of Inflation:September 25, 2024By Isabelle Salle, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko Summary – The post-pandemic surge saw an entire generation live through its first episode of significant and persistent inflation. In this blog, the authors investigate how people’s memories of past inflation affect their beliefs about future inflation, using a survey and a lab experiment. They find that memories of past inflation can have long-lived effects on individuals’ inflation expectations. Since these expectations shape the tradeoff that policymakers face in trying to stabilize economic conditions, this suggests that the consequences of the recent inflation on policy-making may continue to be felt long after inflation has been tamed.
