Maxwell Hartt
Abstract
Population shrinkage, demographic aging, and economic restructuring are leaving many cities in a state of decline. This paper examines the curricula of 94 accredited North American academic planning programs to gauge whether courses specific to these processes are being offered. Findings reveal that only 1% of institutions offer a course in aging communities and only 2% offered courses in decline and urban shrinkage. Trends in economic decline, aging, and population loss do not guarantee a permanent shift from abundance to scarcity; however, accessible tools and guidance regarding these challenges are increasingly important to the education of future planners.
Keywords: Planning education; shrinking cities; economic transformation; aging
Like many professions, planning has dedicated, accredited university and college programs. Planning certification can be achieved through a combination of experience and non-planning education. However, “the preferred, normal route to membership is through successful completion of a university degree in planning from a program formally accredited by the planning profession” (Professional Standards Board, 2014). A Masters-level graduate degree is now considered to be the standard for planning practitioners and a requirement for many planning positions (American Planning Association, 2015). Although there are over 130 universities and colleges that offer planning programs in North America, only 94 of these are recognized by regional and national certification and accreditation boards. Many of these institutions offer programs at the Undergraduate-, Masters- and Doctoral- levels. However, Masters programs are the most common.
National and regional accreditation bodies preserve and enhance the consistency, transparency, and modernity of professional planning programs (Planning Accreditation Board, 2014). Accreditation bodies, such as the Planning Accreditation Board (PAB) in the United States and the Professional Standards Board (PSB) in Canada, dictate program and curriculum guidelines to best prepare students for public and private planning professions. By setting pedagogical standards across the profession, consistent baseline knowledge and training are assured, preparing planners for successful careers and mobilizing knowledge across the public and private realms (Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, 2009; Planning Accreditation Board, 2014; Professional Standards Board, 2014).
Accredited planning programs are regularly reviewed to ensure high-quality education for future planners (Planning Accreditation Board, 2014). Early career planners graduating from accredited programs have been found to be proficient with growth-related planning functions. However, they struggle to deal with decline-related challenges (Greenlee, Ed- wards, & Anthony, 2015). Issues related to decline and its symptoms were found to be further afield from the formal training and education received by early career planners (ibid.). With that said, are planning schools adjusting and adapting curricula and courses to best prepare students for emergent, unprecedented challenges facing the modern planner? This paper explores the role of post-secondary education in preparing planners for urban shrinkage, economic decline, and aging populations through a review of accredited planning curricula across North America.
Growth and Shrinkage
Population shrinkage is becoming progressively more commonplace as low birth rates and the continued selective migration to growing large urban areas drain the populations of smaller, mid-sized, and post-industrial cities (Beauregard, 2014). The demographic aging of populations is significantly changing the makeup of the labor force and the demand for social services (Jessen, 2012). Although immigration can offset the aging of population to some extent, the proportion of the population over age 65 is still expected to pass 20% in the United States (Wiener & Tilly, 2002) and 25% in Canada (Statistics Canada, 2009) by 2050. Global economic restructuring has led to the uneven distribution of financial, knowledge and human capital, with the majority of resources congregating in a small number of large cities—leaving many other cities and towns in a state of perpetual economic decline (Martinez-Fernandez, Audirac, Fol, & Cunningham-Sabot, 2012). Population loss and economic transformations are not new processes. However, research has demonstrated that the multidimensional phenomenon of recent urban shrinkage is distinctive from historical population decline; it is a socio-spatial manifestation of globalization as seen through the advancement of international production systems and global networks (Martinez-Fernandez, Audirac, et al., 2012; Pallagst, Wiechmann, & Martinez-Fernandez, 2013).
Many cities and their planning departments will be challenged by longterm demographic and economic trajectories leading to decline and shrinkage—processes often characterized by housing vacancies, underused infrastructure, and many other physical and social impacts (Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012). In recent years the academic discourse surrounding shrinking cities has grown considerably; however, there remains a significant lag in North American planning practice as discussions, publications, and tools remain largely focused on growth-related planning functions (Pallagst, 2010).
Traditionally, local policy and planning officials’ only response to depopulation has been public redevelopment (Hollander, 2010a). Although these attempts to improve overall economic conditions can work, exogenous factors often limit public redevelopment impact on macro demographic and economic forces.
The hesitance for education, discussion, and action by politicians and planners may very well be that such acknowledgment would necessitate a fundamental review of the underlying core urban policy principles of the planning profession (Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012). There is a deeply rooted growth paradigm in North American politics and development
(Wolfe, 1981), wherein population growth is often viewed as a measure of success. It can be argued that the growth bias is politically-driven, yet Hummel (2014) views the growth paradigm as being so ingrained in planning practice that growth-focused strategies are solely relied upon until it becomes unequivocally clear that they will not work. This is despite evidence that population growth has not been shown to be an indicator of economic prosperity (Gottlieb, 2002). Researchers are beginning to question whether growth-oriented policies are useful, sustainable, or even achievable in all cities (Audirac, Fol, & Martinez-Fernandez, 2010). Perhaps planning, as an overarching discipline, cannot presuppose urban growth. Pallagst (2010) advocates that a paradigm shift towards other metrics and tools is overdue, as it has been shown that planners, generally, do not recognize the prevalence and significant challenges of population loss. This presents a unique chance for planners to reframe decline as opportunity, to reassess planning processes, and reimagine the future of shrinking cities.
Trends in Urban Demographics and Economics
Nearly half of America’s largest cities (27 of 64) have lost population, on average, every decade since 1950 (Hollander, 2011). Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh and St. Louis have lost half of their respective populations, and Baltimore and Philadelphia have lost nearly a third (Hol- lander et al., 2009). The shift to a service economy following the collapse of the manufacturing industry in the Rustbelt region has seen a steady decline in jobs and population for decades (Beauregard, 2014). Many of these cities are shrinking within a growing wider metropolitan region, causing a doughnut effect, or hollowing out, around the city center (Hall, 2006). The redistribution of populations, and their tax dollars, to sur- rounding suburban communities leaves a myriad of challenges for the local government in their wake. These trends of persistent population loss are well known; the phenomenon has been studied at length, and yet these same cities continue to project population growth and promote growth-oriented policy.
Less widely recognized is that severe population loss is not limited to the Northeast and Midwest regions—Birmingham, Memphis, Norfolk, Richmond and New Orleans have also lost large proportions of their populations. Recent trends in the Sunbelt states, from California to Florida have shown housing abandonment and population loss (Hollander, 2011). This is in large part due to the real estate market crash, where subprime mortgage lending, rapidly rising home prices, and a relentless building boom forced many families out of their homes and, in many instances, out of their cities (ibid.).
In Canada, population loss in major cities has not been as severe. The majority of large Canadian cities have seen consistent growth over the last three census periods (Statistics Canada, 2013). However, smaller and mid-sized cities, especially in more remote locations, continue to witness an exodus of young, educated citizens (Schatz, Leadbeater, Martinez-Fernandez, & Weyman, 2013). Coupled with an aging workforce and low birth rates, substantial demographic change is occurring in Canadian cities across the nation as tax revenues shrink and demand for social services rise. Aging populations make for a smaller and less adaptable workforce, and in turn intensify the structural rigidity of the economic production process (Tabah, 1988). Furthermore, demographic aging places additional strain and limits to the future financial feasibility of pension systems.
The economic struggles of Western cities since the Great Recession and real estate market collapse in 2006 have been widely documented and studied through lenses varying from labor to climate change (Elsby, Hobijn, & Sahin, 2010; Scruggs & Benegal, 2012). Similarly, the aging population and increasing dependency ratio of almost all Canadian cities and many American regions has been the focal point of many research programs across North America. Yet the North American academic discussion on urban shrinkage lags behind its European counterparts as it continues to concentrate almost exclusively on either managing urban growth or fragmented redevelopment (Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012).
Although progress bridging the academic literature and professional practice gap has advanced in recent years as the topic has reached a wider audience, planners remain unprepared and ill equipped to deal with the challenges being presented (Martinez-Fernandez, Pallagst, & Wiechmann, 2014; Rieniets, 2006). Professional practice workshops and consultants can offer assistance, but more must be done to effect change at a fundamental level. Cities need planners to grasp the unique opportunity to explore nontraditional approaches to redevelopment and revitalization that do not presuppose growth (Hollander et al., 2009). This begs the question of whether accredited North American university and college planning programs are in tune with either the widely recognized (economic decline, aging) or emerging (urban shrinkage) changes that are reshaping the urban system.
Methodology
In order to determine whether planning programs address economic decline, urban shrinkage or aging populations, the author examined the
2013-2014 course offerings of every accredited North American program. Curricula from all 94 accredited North American planning programs, accessed via their websites, were included in the analysis. The author examined the course offerings using content analysis in order to assess their integration of coursework pertaining to the three major trends highlighted above (decline, population loss and aging). All course titles and descriptions were fully read, rather than performing a keyword search, so as to be certain to capture both apparent and embedded mentions of urban shrinkage, economic decline or aging populations. If a course title or description included any explicit or implicit reference to shrinkage, decline, population loss, or aging it was highlighted in the analysis. The search criteria also included courses pertaining to redevelopment and revitalization. This method proved to be time-intensive, but ensured comprehensiveness and consistency. Although it is possible that course offerings may have touched on decline, population loss, or aging without explicit or implicit mention in the course title or description, the author felt that emergent trends of this magnitude should be notable enough to warrant being a central theme in a course. The goal of this paper is not to devalue planning education, but rather to start an important discussion about emerging challenges facing future planners. It must be noted that most programs offer Special Topics and Reading courses, for which the details usually were not available, so this analysis contains only clearly stated offerings.
Results
Of the 94 accredited North American planning programs, only Wayne State University offers a course (UP6680 Neighborhood Decline and Revitalization) specifically focused on decline. At the University of Buffalo, SUNY, graduate students can choose to specialize in Declining Cities and Distressed Urban Communities, however no specific coursework is offered. In the description for PLAN8002 Regional Theory at the University of Cincinnati both growth and decline are explicitly emphasized, but no course solely focused on decline is available. The University of Toronto did offer Planning in the Face of Economic Decline as a Special Topics course in 2012, but it has not been offered again since.
The University of Maryland at College Park was the sole institution to offer a course, URSP289A Livable Communities: Planning for an Aging Society, explicitly focused on planning for aging communities.
Only the Pratt Institute’s Shrinking Cities (Plan 764) and the Spring 2013 Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s offering of Urban Design Studio: Shrinking Cities (11.338) focused specifically on the phenomenon
of urban shrinkage. Although not necessarily focused on shrinking cities, it is interesting to note that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is currently offering un(Dead) Geographies: The Afterlife of Failed Urban Plans (11.S944)—the sole course to focus explicitly on the management and planning response to failed policy.
Although focused on regrowth rather than managing and optimizing population loss, it is noteworthy that there were 19 separate courses (at 18 institutions, since Jackson State University offers revitalization courses at both the Masters and PhD level) focused on redevelopment and/or revitalization. Additionally, redevelopment and revitalization were recognized as key words in the descriptions of several other courses.
Discussion
Many cities across North America are losing population (Beauregard, 2014). Selective migration, due in large part to economic decline from smaller and mid-sized cities to their larger counterparts is reinforcing economic downturns as shrinking and poorly educated workforces impede municipalities’ ability to attract new businesses and industries. Concurrently, employment opportunities in manufacturing and resource-based industries have continued to shift overseas or disappear completely as cheap labor, increasingly stringent environmental policies, and the exhaustion of finite resources encourage transnational corporations to relocate employment bases (Leadbeater, 2009). These processes are leaving many communities in economic despair, and the selective out-migration of younger, educated citizens is leaving behind an aging population. Planners and other decision makers have to manage growing social, infrastructural, and economic challenges—all with a dwindling tax base. Although daunting and seemingly pessimistic, the depth of such challenges in fact offers possibilities for innovative strategies, such as urban farming, that use existing infrastructure and ample inexpensive land. Additionally, entrepreneurs can implement novel ideas with significantly less risk than in other growing cities. These shrinking cities offer an opportunity to navigate away from traditional approaches to purposefully imagine a new, different kind of city with less density, but also less blight. Such challenges may prove to be an opportunity to imagine a city where people would want to live, a city with safe neighborhoods, ample green space, and innovative design and community development.
This set of challenges and opportunities, faced by communities such as Camden, NJ, differs greatly from those of large growing cities, such as Toronto, ON, where the management of urban growth is the primary concern. Furthermore, an entirely declining region differs significantly
from a declining city within a growing metropolitan area. A range of tools and adaptable approaches are needed to approach the many contextual realities of shrinking cities. As planning schools across North America continue to graduate increasing numbers of students, it is clear that not all of the graduates will find employment in large, growing metropolitan areas.
The analysis of the 94 accredited North American planning programs found that only 1% of institutions offered a course in aging communities. Only 2% offered a course in either decline or urban shrinkage. Not surprisingly, the decline and urban shrinkage courses were offered at universities located in Northeast and Midwestern United States (University of Cincinnati; Pratt Institute, Brooklyn; SUNY, Buffalo; Wayne State University, Detroit). However, as the discussion above detailed, economic and population decline are not limited to only one region or belt of the continent. Most regions in Northern and Eastern Canada have decades-long histories of population loss and economic decline, yet the planning programs at their local universities do not reflect those trends in their coursework.
19% of institutions offered a course explicitly focused on redevelopment or revitalization. This echoes the current accepted understanding in the shrinking cities literature, which indicates that North American planners have a pessimistic, unhealthy acceptance of decline stemming from the wider growth-oriented culture (Hollander et al., 2009). An inability to accept or proactively approach population loss or economic decline,
without relying on growth-oriented strategies, can be attributed to the dearth of strategies and best practices in the planning toolbox (Hollander & Németh, 2011). Based on the analysis above, planners working in shrinking, aging or declining urban areas have had little to no opportunity for formal university training on how to manage the symptoms of population shrinkage and economic decline.
Conclusion
As cities continue to be affected by economic decline, population loss, and demographic aging, a new planning paradigm needs to be recognized. The use of traditional growth strategies in shrinking cities has been socially counterproductive and economically ineffective (Audirac et al., 2010). According to Bernt et al. (2014) there is a broad consensus among researchers and practitioners that planning, as it currently exists, is ill-prepared to manage urban shrinkage. Though the provision of tools, best practices, and guidelines is important, we must also look to the next generation of planners to reconsider how to manage urban shrinkage. Guidance outside of formal university education may be available, but considering the degree of the aforementioned demographic and economic trends, post-secondary planning education needs to play a stronger role. Newly graduated planners entering the workforce must be exposed to, familiar with, and have a clear understanding of the challenges and opportunities present in these communities, as well as the different approaches and techniques that are implementable. Familiarity with successful practices in European shrinking cities, along with the potential transferability of policy and recommendations from North American researchers such as Margaret Dewar (with Thomas, 2013) and Sujata Shetty (2013, 2014), need to be taken into account.
Increasing numbers of cities are projected to shrink in population; municipal dependency ratios will continue to rise as demographic aging becomes more widespread (Martinez-Fernandez, Kubo, Noya, & Weyman, 2012); and the economic decline in older industrial cities and resourced-based towns is expected to continue (Schatz et al., 2013). Will some cities manage to reverse these processes through the attraction of industry or talent? Certainly. But many others will waste already limited resources on tax breaks, incentives, and inflated consultant fees without altering the trajectory of their municipality.
Planning schools need to educate their students more on these topics or, at the very least, make the option available as an elective. The national accreditation boards exist to “ensure high quality education for future urban planners” (Planning Accreditation Board, 2014) and to provide
the planning profession with well-versed, resourceful, and equipped early-career planners. These accreditation boards have a unique opportunity to impact hundreds of shrinking, aging, and declining cities across North America. Although this study cannot conclusively state that urban shrinkage, economic decline, and aging populations are not covered in the examined curricula, it is clear that they are not priorities or central themes in almost any course.
Afflicted communities are not necessarily following an inevitable arc from abundance to scarcity. The future of the many cities experiencing severe and persistent decline is uncertain. Planners have the opportunity to impact change through the exploration of alternatives to help stabilize these cities and neighborhoods. With the proper education and preparation, decline, shrinkage and aging do not have to be negative processes; they can be seen as opportunities to reframe and re-envision cities and their evolution.
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