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All leading long-term global population projections agree on continuing fertility decline, resulting in a rate of population size growth that will continue to decline towards zero and would eventually turn negative. However, a literature inspired by mathematical biology has suggested that because fertility is heritable (i.e., higher-fertility parents tend to have higher-fertility children) and heterogeneous within a population, long-term population growth must eventually be positive. In this research note, we show that heritable fertility is not sufficient for positive long-term population growth, for empirical and theoretical reasons. First, empirically, even higher-fertility sub-populations show declining fertility rates which may eventually be below replacement (and in some populations already are). Second, in a simple Markov model, because heritability is imperfect, the combination of heritability and fertility rates may be quantitatively insufficient: it may be that higher-fertility parents nevertheless produce too few children who retain higher-fertility preferences. These results underscore the importance both of understanding the possible consequences of long-term fertility decline and depopulation and of the causal importance of culture and choice in human populations.

Utilitarianism is the most prominent family of social welfare functions. We present three new axiomatic characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both population size and the welfares of individuals. First, we show that, given uncontroversial basic axioms, Blackorby et al.’s (1998) Expected Critical-Level Generalized Utilitarianism (ECLGU) is equivalent to a new axiom holding that it is better to allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two novel characterizations extend classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable-population, considered alone. By considering both social risk and variable population together, we clarify the fundamental normative considerations underlying utilitarian policy evaluation.

A critical open question at the intersection of climate change and demography is the relationship between extreme climatic conditions and human fertility. In this paper, we study how temperature and humidity exposure affects human fertility in the developing world. We combine 142 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey datasets from low and middle income countries around the globe to create the most complete catalogue of fertility patterns linked to weather data to date. Importantly, our analysis separates the direct impacts of weather from other place-specific seasonal factors that may influence fertility. We find that exposure to extreme heat—relative to a village or urban area’s typical seasonal temperature profile—lowers birth rates nine months later. We find that the rebound in fertility in subsequent months is incomplete, suggesting the fertility declines due to extreme weather are not completely reversed with later additional childbearing. These results have significant implications for climate change, both in describing the potential fertility consequences of climate change and because optimal climate policy depends crucially on the expected size of future generations.

Tools are needed to benchmark carbon emissions and pledges against criteria of equity and fairness. However, standard economic approaches, which use a transparent optimization framework, ignore equity. Models that do include equity benchmarks exist, but often use opaque methodologies. Here we propose a utilitarian benchmark computed in a transparent optimization framework, which, could usefully inform the equity benchmark debate. Implementing the utilitarian benchmark, which we see as ethically minimal and conceptually parsimonious, in two leading climate-economy models allows calculation of the optimal allocation of future emissions. We compare this optimum with historical emissions and initial Nationally Determined Contributions. Compared with cost-minimization, utilitarian optimization features better outcomes for human development, equity, and the climate. Peak temperature is lower under utilitarianism because it reduces the human development cost of global mitigation. Utilitarianism, therefore, is a promising inclusion to a set of benchmarks for future explorations of climate equity.