Excited to announce that Prof. Dick has recently published a new research paper in the Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems! This paper investigates how derailment rates for various causes have changed with recent changes in operations by the four largest US freight railroads. Mainline train derailment and freight rail traffic data from the years 2018–2023 are subject to statistical analysis to compare normalized derailment rate (frequency) and severity with that of the years 2012–2017. These two analysis periods distinguish recent years with “precision scheduled railroad” operating practices emphasizing, among other things, increased train lengths, from an earlier period of equal duration when freight trains were substantially shorter on average. The analysis demonstrates that while train size (number of railcars per train) is correlated with increasing derailment rates for certain causes related to train make-up/handling and human factors, derailment rates for other causes have declined. The paper was completed in collaboration with Dr. Peter Swan from Penn State Harrisburg and is an extension of their work together as part of the NAS study of the impacts of trains longer than 7,500 feet.
The reference and DOI link for the paper is as follows:
Dick, C.T., and P.F. Swan. 2026. Temporal trends in freight train derailment rates and severity under changing railway operations. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems. 152(10): 04026090. doi: 10.1061/JTEPBS.TEENG-9459