Heat risk mapping: A non-parametric multivariate approach

Speaker: Naveen Sudharsan, PhD | Postdoctoral Fellow | Jackson School of Geosciences
Time: August 25, 2023, 2:00 – 2:30 PM (CST)
Zoom Link: https://utexas.zoom.us/j/98848018679

Abstract: Persistent changes in the climate have amplified the strength and occurrence rate of unusual weather events, temperature fluctuations, natural disasters, and the resulting destruction they bring about. The temperature rise is related to increased days with heat waves and tropical nights, which generate problems in many different areas. The risks stemming from heat waves manifest in diverse manners, encompassing aspects like the severity of diseases and deficits in energy supply. To address effectively to such complex risks, it is necessary to analyze where and what risks occur. Most studies on heatwaves investigate different characteristics independently without their inter-relationships. However, this univariate approach to characterizing heatwaves often underestimates the impacts of heatwaves because they fail to characterize the extreme event comprehensively. So, here we developed a non-parametric multivariate approach to estimate heatwave risk, combining a non-parametric multivariate kernel density estimation and data envelopment analysis for hazard and vulnerability, respectively. Moreover, we use the universal thermal climate index to map risk to accommodate the effect of humidity, wind, radiation, and human metabolism along with temperature on heatwaves. In this presentation, I demonstrate a reproducible method that can provide guidance for policymakers in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations.

About: Naveen Sudharsan is a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin. He has a Ph.D. from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay in Environmental Science and Engineering, where his research was on heatwaves and extreme precipitation events. His research interests include Mechanisms, observations, attribution, and projection of hydro-meteorological extremes; Temperature Extremes and its impact on human health; Compound events, and Climate risk. Currently, he is working on multiple projects such as heat risk mapping for CONUS, coastal risk mapping, hurricane rainfall climatology for Texas, short-term forecasting through deep learning, assessment of heat mitigation strategies, digital twin development for the Gulf of Mexico, and heatwave causality studies.