A brief report prepared by Arielle Kuperberg, Daniel Collier, Joan Maya Mazelis, and Fenaba Addo for the Council on Contemporary Families symposium Policies Affecting Families: What We Know, and What to Expect in the Second Trump Term
In Vice President Vance’s first public address after taking office in January he laid out his priorities, stating “I want more babies in America.” Our research suggests that one way the second Trump administration can achieve this goal is by addressing the student loan crisis among young adults.
When the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, the Trump administration quickly moved to freeze loan payments and interest for public student loans. The loan freeze ultimately lasted until September 2023, with payments resuming in October 2023, giving borrowers more than a three-year break in paying off their loans. This loan pause – and the resumption of payments – has profoundly affected the nearly 43 million Americans with federal student loan debt.
Our research has examined how student loans have affected American borrowers, and how their behavior changed during and after the loan pause. We have uncovered further evidence that student loan debt is leading to delays in family formation for many young adults, contributing to the record low childbearing rates and the record high typical age at first marriage seen in the United States today.
Funding College with Student Loans – How Did We Get Here?
After World War II, the U.S. recognized that maintaining military and social advantages required more college-educated citizens. To help working- and middle-class students pay for college, the federal government began providing student loans. In the 1960s, the government standardized a student loan system. Private banks, hesitant to lend to young borrowers, had their loans guaranteed by the government until 2010, when the Direct Loan program removed banks from the process and began loaning money to students directly.
As loan systems evolved, debates arose over repayment models. Prominent conservative economist Milton Friedman first advocated for income-driven repayment (IDR) in 1955, suggesting borrowers repay a percentage of income over a fixed period to manage financial shocks. The Bush Sr. administration established the first widely accepted IDR program, and over the decades that followed, IDR programs have taken different forms, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF). But recently the Trump administration has quietly removed applications for IDR programs from government websites, raising doubts as to whether these payment plans will still be available to borrowers.
However, even those using IDR programs often see their balances continue to grow because the payments do not cover the interest. This “negative amortization” can depress credit scores and hinder homeownership, which in turn can affect decisions to get married and have children. Financial distress from loans can also affect family planning – as was indicated by borrowers in PSLF who Collier and colleagues interviewed during the loan pause. Of note, once loan payments resumed, some parents had to make choices between paying their student loans or providing their children with opportunities like guitar lessons. As one interviewee said:
One question you asked was how the payment restarts would affect me financially, at the time I wasn’t sure. I surmised things like guitar lessons for my daughter would be off the table. That turned out to be true. Her guitar lessons and my student loan payment were about even, this week I decided to cancel those lessons after another unexpected overdraft. With student loans, the creeping cost of living made my budget so tight that I was down to zero before the next paycheck. Summer programming for the kiddo while I’m at work is looking next to impossible without taking on credit card debt.
The loan pause has ended, but many borrowers remain in limbo as programs proposed by the Biden administration face court challenges, leaving people confused about their options and distrustful of available information. Meanwhile, future borrowers face uncertainty as the new Republican leadership proposed a single IDR plan. This plan would significantly increase monthly repayments for most borrowers and eliminate time-based forgiveness, potentially leading to lifelong financial distress for many.
Student Loans and Starting a Family
In general, those with more education—and therefore more financial stability – are more likely to get married, stay married, or marry directly without living together first. On the other hand, more education is associated with having fewer children, in large part because having children earlier can make it harder to finish a degree.
Student loans complicate this story. Financial challenges and distress from student loan debt can reduce marriage and childbearing among young adults, even while allowing them to complete more education. Numerous studies have found that those with student debt have lower marriage and childbearing rates compared to their counterparts who attend college without taking on debt.
Addo analyzed a large national dataset and found that women with student debt were more likely to delay marriage, instead opting for cohabitation or remaining single. The role of student debt in marriage has evolved over time. In another study, Addo and colleagues showed that among younger generations, student debt acts as an economic barrier, particularly for those who might have otherwise married directly without first cohabiting. This contrasts with older generations, when loan burdens were much lower, and student debt was linked to higher marriage rates for men. Rising debt is increasingly associated with delays in marriage, with cohabitation becoming a more typical pathway to marriage for all, but particularly for those burdened with student debt.
While college degrees can increase earnings, strong beliefs about building financial stability by paying off student debt before marrying and having children can mean that young adults with debt may put off starting a family even if they are relatively well-off. In a previous brief report that Kuperberg and Mazelis published with the Council on Contemporary Families, they noted that 1 in 5 of the recent graduates with loans that they surveyed were putting off marriage, and a similar number were putting off having children because of their student loan debt. What is more, they found nearly half of undergraduate students said people should put off having children if they had loans to repay, while nearly one quarter said people should put off getting married if they have loans.
What Happened During the Loan Pause?
In new data analyzed for the Council on Contemporary Families, Kuperberg and Mazelis found that during the loan pause many borrowers were able to move forward in their lives, with some getting married and having children because of greater financial flexibility during this time. In December 2023, a few months after loan payments resumed, they surveyed 219 college graduates with loans from two public universities, including graduates from the classes of 2017 and 2021, asking them how they spent money during the loan pause they would have typically spent on loan payments, and how they changed their spending when loan payments resumed. Kuperberg and Mazelis have also interviewed fifteen 2016 graduates with loans almost annually since they graduated and were able to use interviews conducted during and after the pause to provide context for the survey results.
A small number of survey respondents had moved forward with forming families as a direct result of the extra money they had during the loan pause. In particular, 3% of those whose loans were paused reported using the extra money specifically for a wedding. One interviewee, Simone Brown*, reported that the loan pause eased her financial worries enough that she got married sooner than she would have otherwise.
The pause also led some to purchase a home, like Alice Jones, who had lived in a rented apartment with her boyfriend for several years before loans were paused. About 4% of those surveyed were able to buy a home during the pause thanks to having money for a down payment, and another 5% used the money to move into a better house or apartment that they rented.
During the pause, 6% of survey takers used the money for expenses related to having more children. One survey respondent reported getting fertility treatments with the money. Almost one in four parents said they used the extra money during the loan pause to buy something for their children. Nine percent used loan payments to buy something for a romantic partner or to do something fun with them, potentially enhancing relationships. Some used the money to leave unhappy families, such as one survey respondent who used the money for a divorce.
The loan pause also allowed participants to catch up on other bills and make investments in their families. Once she no longer had to worry about student loan payments, Crystal Christian was able to build savings and plan a family vacation with her husband and their two 20-something children – “Something we’ve never done, ever.”
But once loan payments resumed, some of these gains were reversed. Twelve percent of borrowers moved into cheaper housing—and for two-thirds of the ones who moved, that meant moving back in with their parents.
Children also paid the price. Just like the parent Collier interviewed who took their daughter out of guitar lessons, Kuperberg and Mazelis found that one in five parents who started paying on their loans again in 2023 said they pulled their children out of extracurricular activities or didn’t sign them up for activities they would normally have participated in, because of their increased loan payments.
Implications
Our research found that loans lead to declines in childbearing and marriage, but the loan pause provided some relief. Even though only a small number of people used the loan payment money during the pause for expenses directly related to marriage (3%) or to having children (6%), these small differences can add up to make a big difference over time. It is critical to note that the loan pause only lasted for 3 ½ years.
Reductions in money spent on children’s activities after the loan pause ended also shows how loans limit parents’ ability to give their children the lives that they want to give them. This is another reason that young adults with student loan debt may have fewer children or opt not to have children at all, as they try to make financially responsible decisions with restricted resources. If the new administration is concerned about people having fewer children in the United States, reducing student loan burdens may be one way to encourage people to have more children.
*Names are pseudonyms
About the Authors
Arielle Kuperberg is an Associate Professor of Sociology in the Sociology, Anthropology and Public Health Department at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and Co-Chair of the Council on Contemporary Families. She can be reached at akuperbe@umbc.edu. Follow her on X at @ATKuperberg or on Bluesky at @ariellekuperberg.bsky.social.
Daniel Collier is an Assistant Professor of Higher and Adult Education at the University of Memphis and a research fellow for Davidson College’s College Crisis Initiative (C2i) and the Student Loan Law Initiative (SLLI) at UC Irvine. Dr. Collier’s research focuses on student loan debt, tuition-free policies, and student non-cognitive attributes. Connect with Dan on Bluesky at @dcollier74.bsky.social. Find Dan’s recent work on Public Service Loan Forgiveness via the Student Borrower Protection Center.
Joan Maya Mazelis is an Associate Professor of Sociology in the Sociology, Anthropology and Criminal Justice Department at Rutgers University-Camden and a board member of the Council on Contemporary Families. She can be reached at mazelis@rutgers.edu. Follow her on X at @JoanieMazelis.
Fenaba Addo is an Associate Professor of Public Policy at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, faculty affiliate of the Carolina Population Center, and a board member of the Council on Contemporary Families.
Acknowledgements
This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grants no. 1947603 and 1947604. We thank Kalvin Benfield, Katherine Fredricks, Anurag Pant, and Jairo Rodriguez Bustamante for their research assistance.
