REPORT: Calculation of the corrected time evolution of COVID-19 cases in the USA

In this challenging time where the novel COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the world, Dr. Dodabalapur analyzes the efficacy of the USA’s testing and reporting on the spread and impact on our country. Follow this link to read the full report: COVID Calculations Report

The time evolution of COVID-19 cases in the USA is highly inaccurate as a result of serious testing inefficiencies and biases, especially in the earlier stages. In this report, the corrected time evolution of such cases is reconstructed from death data, the average time between case recording and death in China, and the estimated overall death rate of COVID cases. The corrected time evolution in number of cases is compared to the officially reported case number evolution and a huge discrepancy exists between the two. The findings indicate that (i) the pandemic likely started earlier than though; (ii) the official number of cases is underreported by more than a factor of about 10; and (iii) the rate of increase in the calculated number of cases with time is slightly less compared to that of reported data.